January 14th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 01-14-2013
Markets closed a 'tad' below where they opened and remained flat for the entire session. The averages traded in a tight range for most of the day where the SP500 stayed within a 4 point range during the afternoon.
Tomorrow morning at 8:30 the Advanced Retail Sales, Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Empire Manufacturing results will be published. Depending on how good, or bad, the numbers may have an effect on an otherwise sour market. If you 'guessed' and bought something long today, you might be pleasantly surprised tomorrow. I am not totally convinced we are going to see greater highs in the coming weeks or months.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4 pm is at 13507 up 19 or 0.14%.
The SP500 is at 1470 down 1.37 or -0.09%.
SPY is at 146.81 down 0.25 or -0.17%.
The $RUT is at 880.09 down 0.68 or -0.08%.
NASDAQ is at 3117 down 8 or -0.26%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil was down this morning and is currently trading up at 94.17 trading between 94.29 and 93.53 and the bias is neutral.
Brent crude was up earlier and is currently trading up at 111.89 trading between 110.52 and 112.04 and the bias is neutral.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 168.05, trading range is between 1660.05 and 1674.84 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.64 down from 3.67 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.45 earlier to 79.70 and is currently trading down at 79.52.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary