January 14th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 01-14-2013
Markets have muddled sideways for the morning trading under light volume. The trading range has been narrow with the SP500 remaining within a 6 point range. It has been in a 2 point range for most of the morning on low volume while the bulk of the averages remain in the red.
By noon the averages look as if they are not going to do anything and I am thinking seriously of getting out for a round of golf.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the midday session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at noon is at 13490 up 2 or 0.02%.
The SP500 is at 1468 down 4 or -0.28%.
SPY is at 146.64 down 0.41 or -0.32%.
The $RUT is at 879.29 down 1.49 or -0.17%.
NASDAQ is at 3109 down 16 or -0.50%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was down this morning and is currently trading up at 93.40 trading between 94.29 and 93.53 and the bias is neutral.
Brent crude was up earlier and is currently trading up at 111.00 trading between 110.52 and 111.36 and the bias is neutral.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 1666.30, trading range is between 1660.05 and 1674.84 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.64 down from 3.67 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.45 earlier to 79.70 and is currently trading down at 79.59.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary