December 21st, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 12-21-2012
Markets tested the morning lows and melted back up, close anyway, to the session's highs. Then towards the close, gave a half-hearten one-finger salute to the politicians in Washington at the close.
The majors closed at or above the 100 DMA which is bullish, but failed to rally back solidly and that is bearish. I suspect we will see more melting down by Monday morning, but then, I wouldn't count on it.
And here I thought we dodged the World ending bullet. Sure glad I held off telling my cheap boss where to stick his Holiday bonus.
“Open your presents early this year. Even though the world showed no signs of ending on Friday, the Mayan calendar is notoriously tricky. One German researcher says that Dec. 24th could be the big day. Then again, the Mayans were never particularly good at making predictions. By Nina Weber more...”
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning and continued into the closing bell. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as the year ends, but a lot of guessing still remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor. I personally would not have guessed what transpired last night and continued this morning.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13190 down 120 or -0.91%.
The SP500 is at 1430 down 13 or -0.94%.
SPY is at 142.95 down 1.14 or -0.79%.
The $RUT is at 847.92 down 4.57 or -0.54%.
NASDAQ is at 3021 down 30 or -0.96%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was down today and is currently trading up at 88.68 trading between 90.00 and 88.00 and the bias is negative.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading up at 1656.02, trading range is between 1634.42 and 1657.05 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.57 up from 3.54 earlier.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
The US dollar rose from 79.07 earlier to 79.72 and is currently trading down at 79.65.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary