December 5th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 12-05-2012
Premarket was up a few points and the DOW opened up +2 and the 500 went red at -0.40.
By 10 am the markets were mixed, flat and on moderate volume. It would appear today is going to be another quiet lackluster session although there is some selling going on that may accelerate as the month progresses.
I would expect the averages to show lower numbers during the morning session.
Fox News reported, “The ADP National Employment report shows the private sector added 118,000 jobs in November, missing expectations of 125,000 jobs created.”
ADP Print Of 118K Misses Expectations, Drops; Manufacturing Jobs Decline For Fifth Month: Zandi Blames Sandy
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This trend makes predictions of movements during any session nearly impossible and trading becomes futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as the year ends, but a lot of guessing still remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back scrimpy gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:00 is at 12996 up 44 or 0.33%.
The SP500 is at 1406 down 0.26 or -0.02%.
The $RUT is at 820.69 down 1.43 or -0.18%.
SPY is at 141.19 down 0.09 or -0.06%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is down today and is currently up at 88.44 trading between 89.10 and 88.15 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude is down today and is currently down at 109.96 trading between 110.55 and 109.65 and the bias is flat.
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading up at 1695.19, trading range is between 1706 and 1692.18 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.67 down from 3.68 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.56 earlier to 79.83 and is currently trading down at 79.76.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary