October 5th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 10-05-2012
Morning highs at 10:30 was the last of the euphoria of the unemployment drop. As expected the market has been turned over to the HFT computers because of low volume. The trend at the midday mark is down and only the algo machines know where the markets are going next. However, I do not expect to see the averages advance much today as we are very near previous highs that provide a substantial resistance.
Part-Timers Fuel Jobless Rate Drop; U-6 Unchanged at 14.7% says Barron's Randall W. Forsyth. He goes to say, “Curb your enthusiasm. The drop in unemployment was largely due to a surge in the number of part-time workers who would prefer (or need) full-time jobs.”
The fact-digging continues, this time out out of Goldman, which has some less than stellar words about what the superficial consensus says was a strong number.
Then again, Goldman's agenda is pure goldilocks: an economy that is not too strong and just right for another $2 trillion of QEternity at a minimum.
Remember: if jobs were to really surge someone might ask Bernanke if when he will stop his $85 billion/month flow program aka QE3.
The RRR** surprisingly was very narrow, again, at the opening bell and I feel any trades will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market has low volume and remains flat. Swing trading is at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 13634 up 59 or 0.43%.
The 500 is at 1466 up 5 or 0.34%.
The $RUT is at 849.16 up 4.51 or 0.53%.
SPY is at 146.63 up 0.51 or 0.35%.
The longer trend is up, the past week's trend is neutral to bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is down today and is at 89.24 trading between 91.65 and 89.10 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude is down today and is at 110.95 trading between 113.00 and 110.51 and the bias is negative.
Gold is down today at 1782.42, trading between 1795.84 and 1772.50 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.78 down from 3.81 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.53 earlier to 79.18 and is currently trading at 79.30.
The question: Will Jobs News Boost Obama? History Says No and I agree.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary