September 4th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 09-04-2012
Sometime around 2 pm a rally started when GERMAN FM Schaeuble said, “Greece can't expect third bailout.” I guess 'Hopium' is still a viable drug for the markets but I personally smell the HFT crowd as there was NO REAL news and the volume was low. At about 2:30 the HFT computers got tired and the SP500 started dropping from 1409 to 1404 at the close. This market place is insane; price movement is all over the board and makes little sense. Charts and other technical data points are of little use other than the red volume towards the close was much higher than the usual by at least 10 times.
That isn't saying much because 'normal' standards that volume is still considered low. My question is who was doing the selling?
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and improved just after 10 am. Again, without prior warning at 2 pm it again improved by a 'smidgin'. However still remains risky as the 3X ETF spreads are about a point and that isn't very much to play with. Any trades probably will end up on the unprofitable side while this market remains flat. Swing trading is at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13035 down 55 or -0.42%.
The 500 is at 1404.94 down 1.64 or -0.12%.
The $RUT is at 822.16 up 10.06 or 1.24%.
SPY is at 141.13 down 0.04 or -0.03%.
The trend is neutral and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is at 95.47 trading between 97.34 and 94.95 and the bias is neutral.
Brent crude is at 114.21 trading between 116.61 and 113.94 and the bias is negative to neutral.
Gold is at 1695.55 trading between 1698.65 and 1688.30 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.47 down from 3.49 earlier.
Earlier the USD rose from 81.05 yesterday to 81.38 and is currently at 81.36.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary