Short-term Outlook for Gold 16 December 2014

December 17th, 2014
in gold

by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight

Technical Analysis

Gold closed near unchanged yesterday (16 December 2014), holding near support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

gold-coinsand-little-bars

Follow up:

Click for larger image.
gold-daily-prometh-2014-dec-16-600x560

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 1. The quick move above the last alpha high (AH) during the last beta phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 29, with our best estimate being now through December 18.

  • Last STCL: December 1, 2014
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 29; best estimate now through December 18.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active

Click for larger image.
gold-cycles-prometh-2014-dec-16-600x560

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 1,240 area would reconfirm the uptrend from November and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below uptrend support near 1,187 would predict a move down toward the previous low near 1,140.

Both scenarios are equally likely.


Gold Currency Index Daily Chart Analysis

The Gold Currency Index (GCI) is a composite of gold prices in the currencies of 10 of the largest economies in the world as defined by GDP. It is therefore currency independent, reflecting the intrinsic value of gold as an international currency itself.

Technical Analysis

The GCI closed near unchanged today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from November near congestion support in the 32.80 area. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Click for larger image.
gold-currency-prometh-2014-dec-16-600x600

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above congestion resistance in the 33.80 area would reconfirm the uptrend from November and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below congestion support at the 31.90 level would predict a move down toward the previous low at 30.69.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

 









Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.















 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved