January 14th, 2014
Bears Losing Grip on Gold Market
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The action in the Gold pits this Friday was definitely positive, even bullish. If Gold were still locked in a bear market downtrend, Friday would have provided a great opportunity for the bears. With price still below the current Cycle's day 4 peak, yet $65 higher than the prior Cycle Low, the setup was ripe for the bears to take control and push Gold back below the 10dma.
Instead, the opposite occurred. On Friday (10 January 2014), we saw a rush of fresh buying which pushed Gold comfortably off the 10dma and up to a new Daily Cycle high. This was the kind of move that we would expect from a 1st Daily Cycle, so it pushes us much further down the path to confirming that a new Investor Cycle is underway. Along with the favorable price action, the oscillators have responded well. The MACD has begun to show separation, and the RSI is approaching short term overbought territory. And, as reported last week, there have never been 6 Daily Cycles in 1 Investor Cycle. The bullish confirmations we're seeing at present serve to bolster the case that Gold is in the 1st DC of a new IC.
Gold is still a few confirmations from a final declaration that this is a 1st Daily Cycle, but the evidence is mounting. For now, we'll treat the first DC scenario as primary. "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck".
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Editor's note: Monday 13 February 2014 New York gold futures (Feb 14) traded in a narrow range between 1250 and 1254, closing at 1,252.60, up 1.60, according to Investing.com.