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Euro/Dollar Weekly Update 13 May 2013

May 14th, 2013
in contributors, forex

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 13th-17th May – Euro/Dollar Weekly Update

by Nick Simpson, Forex-FX-4X

  • EURUSD broke below previous 1.2950 area support on Friday but closed the day (and week) back near the 1.3000 round number area. The key currency pair has dropped almost 300 pips from the early May swing high around 1.3250.
  • The failure to close under previous support may see the euro/dollar pair retest the area around the 200 period SMA and squeeze the weaker euro shorts during early week trading.  The 200 SMA is roughly aligned with prior support lows around 1.3030.
  • We also note the US dollar index has taken out previous USDX 83.42 area resistance, but ultimately closed the week under the recent range high point.

Follow up:

  • The latest COT (Commitments of Traders) report CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) reveals that large specs had added to the net euro short position as of May 7th. This  data showed a net short EUR FX position around -33,5k contracts as of Tuesday, in comparison to the previous week’s  -30k position.
  • Any continuation of the move lower could potentially see an element of support around the 1.2875 area price pivot zone, the previous resistance level from early April. Further to this is the 1.2744 area swing low, which was last hit prior to the move back up to the 1.3200 resistance zone.

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