September 29th, 2012
Can Crude continue the down move?
by Mohnish Shah, Waves Strategy Advisors
Bottom line: Crude has started the next leg on downside.
Nymex Crude Daily chart:
(Click on graph for larger image.)
MCX Crude 60 mins chart (September Contract):
As discussed earlier,
“In near term, any move on the upside could provide good selling opportunity and prices could move lower towards 94.20/94.10 levels”.
NYMEX Crude moved in line with our expectations. Prices were unable to move above the prvious high of 100, re-entered the bearish trend, breached the crucial level of 94 and moved lower to 91.60 levels. From a wave perspective, prices have completed wave c of flat correction a-b-c, and have started the next leg on downside. In near term, any attempt on the upside will utilize to initiate the short position and eventually it should drift lower towards 90/89.50 levels.
We have mentioned in a previous report,
“In near term, as long as 5290 is intact on upside bias is negative and prices could move lower towards 5210/5200 levels in the coming trading session”.
MCX Crude moved lower exactly as expected. In the previous session prices decisively took the crucial level of 5290, and moved lower to 4950.
Currently it is highly oversold and hovering near the pivot low of 4950 levels. In next trading session prices might consolidate sideways or slightly inched higher to alleviate the oversold position. In short, any move on the upside will provide good selling opportunity and prices could head lower to 4900/4380 levels.
Editor's note: This was originally published over a week ago (20 September). Since then oil has trended down to as low as $89.98 (26 September). In the last two days oil has rebounded and the spot price foor WTI in New york Closed at $92.10 friday, 28 September).