Trefis Week in Review

December 3rd, 2011
in b2evolution

by Trefis Staff

The Week in Review

Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting. Trefis is a financial community structured trefis-citigrouparound trends, forecasts and insights related to some of the most popular stocks in the US.  It provides the unique feature of allowing the user to model future valuation based upon projected changes in components of each business.  It also provides communication capabilities among members, including concensus of member analysis compared to Trefis staff analysis and blogging opportunities for members.

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Insights from the Week Technology Media & Telecom

The past week was good for almost all stocks in the telecom industry with improving global cues buoying broader markets and with it the telecom stocks ...

The deal requires Sprint to pay up to $1.6 billion over a four year period in network fees and possible equity investments, and eases investor concerns about an imminent Clearwire bankruptcy ...

While these aren’t exactly ringing endorsements, it seems as though analysts believe that all negative news are largely priced into the RIM stock ...

Xbox 360 saw the best sales week in its history, thanks to Black Friday. Microsoft sold over 960,000 Xbox 360 units, and nearly 750,000 units of the Kinect ...

Google has launched a significant addition to its Google Maps for Android, which would now enable indoor maps of select malls, airports and transit stations ...

HTC feels that it may not be able to achieve the lowered target and has now cut its forecast by as much as 23% despite the ongoing holiday season that usually sees smartphone makers post their best sales ...

Groupon’s North American gross billings for October rose by as much as 22% from September, which supports the strong growth outlook ...

Apple had around 350,000 apps in its ecosystem as of January 2011, which is by far the most number of apps for a smartphone operating system ...

The new deal will deepen ties between the two companies and will enable clients of both companies to more efficiently and more cheaply coordinate their operations in different markets ...

Clearwire’s warning that it could skip the $237 million debt payment could be aimed at pressuring Sprint into extending a network-sharing agreement with Clearwire as both depend on each other ...

We believe that although this initiative will not help RIM gain share in the smartphone market, it could help it generate more service revenues for the company ...

The market for Application Delivery will grow from about $3 billion in 2011 to $8 billion by 2018. F5 Networks can ride this wave to a very enviable stock price as long as they continue to be among the leaders ...

Substantially all of the revenue is tied to this market as the remainder of income comes from installation, consulting and other services related to Application Delivery ...

Internet retail is becoming more and more mainstream, so it’s not difficult to see why eBay’s stock may have some tailwinds, as traditional retailers are now starting to list their products on eBay’s website ...

The most recent case in Europe involves the company’s practice of “harvesting” user information in order to help advertisers better target their corresponding markets ...

It seems HTC is feeling the heat of this heightened pressure from Apple more than any other competitor, with the 4S stealing the show this holiday season ...

The Kindle Fire model would not necessarily be applicable to a corresponding phone, as the e-content sales might not totally offset the hardware loss ...

It is reportedly planning to launch the first beta of Office 15 in early 2012. Office 15 will have a completely redesigned interface, just like Windows 8, to work on both computers and tablets ...

The mobile payment start-up has recently rolled out some innovative mobile payment initiatives which target customer loyalty in particular ...

During its last earnings, the company announced that it will meet its full year net subscriber addition expectations of 1.6 million, and that requires a very optimistic subscriber gain in Q4 ...

Similar to its consolidated fashion iPad app, About.com’s presence on the Flipboard should guarantee more unique visitors to its dwindling traffic in the least ...

The company has gauged the mobile revolution well in time with strategic acquisitions like Zong, and PayPal should continue to remain its fastest growing segment for the remaining year ...

It will be targeted at users who want a PostgreSQL database, while Database.com will cater to those enterprise customers who want to use the entire Force.com stack ...

The company seems to be advertising its faith in the PC market despite the rising popularity of smartphones and tablets that threatens to cannibalize the former ...

Revenues from broadband internet facilities, however, are rising because of initiatives in the form of network expansion and greater marketing spend taken by the company ...

As share repurchases by a company are, more often than not, an indicator that the company views its shares as undervalued in the market, OpenTable saw investors getting bullish about its stock ...

It is going to unveil the next version of its application server, WebLogic 12c, which will allow enterprise customers to build their own private clouds when coupled with the Exalogic application server appliance ...

In our Trefis model, we can see that Nokia-Seimens’ wireless division brings over $5 billion in revenues, which constitutes more than 80% of its combined wireless and wireline revenues ...

Microsoft has stated that it plans to integrate this video search technology across its entertainment platform to improve the search and discovery of video content on the Xbox Live network ...

Access to a huge 25-34 year old demography in China and India, an age group that has seen the highest smartphone penetration, will more than make up for the loss in margins with increased sales ...

Some icing on the cake for Monster’s push into the military employment marketplace are the tax incentives recently enacted by Congress ...

The recent floods in Thailand have hurt the production of hard drives by companies like Western Digital and Toshiba, leading to a jump in disk drive prices ...

If the Windows 8 public launch gets delayed to 2013, Windows sales can be expected to show an even greater decline in 2012, which could hurt Microsoft’s stock price ...

The loyalty for RIM smartphones that came out of the survey was even lower at 48%. This goes to show that Apple is bound to gain share in the smartphone market in future ...

However, the report lacks specifications details on the new device and the iPad 4, which is important to understand if the products will find mass market acceptance in future ...

In the past couple days we have seen a recovery in tech stock on the prospects of a new EU deal and the coordinated efforts of global central banks ...

This week, it launched the next version of its application server – WebLogic 12c, which enables enterprises to build their own private clouds with the Exalogic application server appliance ...

Exiting the investment in Huawei Symantec technologies gives Symantec a 250% profit on the $150 million it initially invested, and will also help it improve its profit margins, which were being dragged down by the joint entity ...

Reportedly, Microsoft is already working on the second version of the Kinect, which will come with a series of advanced features and improved motion sensing and voice recognition capabilities ...

AT&T is planning the divestment in such a way that it still gets enough of the spectrum it so covets while making Leap Wireless the fourth largest wireless carrier in the U.S. market ...

While earlier speculation was that a complete take-over of Yahoo was on the cards, founder Jerry Yang never seemed keen on letting go of the company’s entire assets ...

Google’s is expected to emphasize products that would integrate well with Google+ and Android, the company’s social and mobile platforms respectively — Google Music is a recent example ...

The report suggests that iPhone 4S sales have totaled between 150,000 and 300,000 units combined at SK Telecom and Korea Telecom, and that a number of pre-orders have recently been cancelled ...

In last couple of weeks, the media company Time Warner has made some strides when it comes to leveraging new connected devices and bolstering content partnerships ...

Third-quarter data released by Gartner recently also suggests a slight improvement in device sell-through, as RIM unit sales rose to 12.7 million from 12.65 million in the second quarter ...

Increasing competition in its core business has forced Akamai to diversify by offering value-add services to augment its product portfolio and protect its margins ...

Using this new offering if Sina is able to attract a significant amount of new users to its Weibo and Weiyou services, it could mean substantial upside for its stock ...

Considering the relatively low expected sales volume, this won’t move the needle on the stock price but is interesting way that businesses are using technology to engage their customers ...

We believe that if Akamai could look to acquire Cotendo to remove one of its fastest growing competitors which is hurting its profit margins while gaining access to its customer base and mobile acceleration technology ...

Although the Fire may trounce other Android-based rivals rather easily, the iPad will however prove a very different beast to conquer ...

NEI withdrew its earlier proposal for splitting the roles of Chairman and CEO in June this year after it was promised a role in studying management changes at RIM ...

SAP is looking to exploit the rising penetration of mobile devices in the enterprise. It is one of the first enterprise software makers to focus on mobile apps ...

Google+ is now projected as the one-stop shop for any social media initiatives for Google, and older products like Friend Connect have become redundant at best ...

Sprint hasn’t been effective in controlling subscriber churn which is crucial if it wants to stand by its commitment of buying at least 30.5 million iPhones in the next four years ...

We expect it to capture around 27.5% by the end of the forecast period, backed by the success of the Kinect, a series of new exclusive titles, and the growing popularity of the Xbox Live network ...

CEO Tim Armstrong finally set the line straight by categorically stating that AOL was not interested in any of Yahoo’s assets ...

The recent case where a UK bakery lost around $20,000 on a Groupon deal, highlights how Groupons can potentially be dangerous to many businesses, especially ones with high marginal costs ...

Bloomberg reported that AT&T may be readying a proposal to divest as much as 40% of T-Mobile’s business in order to address the Justice Department’s concerns ...

Mirasol technology is designed to create a better viewing experience in various environments ranging from dim indoor lighting to the brightest outdoor sunlight ...

Around 24 million smartphones were shipped to operators and retailers in China last quarter as opposed to 23 million units shipped in the U.S. market ...

A grim global economic environment failed to deter shoppers as comScore reported that U.S. online shopping spend on Black Friday increased by around 26% to around $816 million ...

It recently launched tablet apps in the Creative Suite, and is also focusing its efforts on HTML 5, instead of Flash to reverse the slowdown in Creative software sales ...

ChangeWave marks the launch of the Kindle Fire as “the most explosive development in the tablet market since the release of the original iPad" ...

Microsoft is not expected to make complete take-over bid for the erstwhile internet giant, as its interests should be limited to protecting its search alliance with Yahoo ...

The primary triggers have been company’s pessimistic outlook for year 2012, and its latest decision to raise $400 million via stock and convertible debt offering ...

eBay continues to bolster its online shopping experience through a strategic acquisition of recommendation engine Hunch, as well as further enhancements to its mobile shopping segment ...

Of the last five quarters of revenue growth that the company has recorded, Nokia managed to turn a profit in only one of them ...

Adobe’s future revenue growth depends on how it carry forward its dominance in desktop computing to tablets, which are a rapidly growing market ...

It has time and again reiterated its target of reducing operating expenses by 1 billion Euros by 2013 from 5.65 billion Euros in 2010 ...

It recently launched social media marketing solutions for small businesses, which enables them to market and advertise their products and monitor their campaigns on social networking portals ...

The company continues to target smaller business customers that can leverage from growing the user base to attract talent as well as use LinkedIn as an effective tool for branding and other promotional activities ...

 

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, & Automotive

According to First Data, the restaurant and establishment sales for Nov 24-25 paid for by credit or debit card increased by an impressive 11.7% from a year earlier ...

In January this year, Target announced its intentions to sell all of its credit card receivables segment, which totals to $6.7 billion as of October 30, 2010 ...

Riding on high growth momentum in the prestige beauty segment, consistent double digit growth rates and expanding market share despite weak macroeconomic conditions, EL stock has swelled by more than 40% this year ...

RadioShack has recently decided to extend its promotional offer till year end wherein it offers free phones to customers when they sign up for a wireless service contract ...

China’s baby products market has been growing at more than 30% a year, with demand expected to hit 2 trillion Renminbi ($314 billion) by 2015, according to Hong Kong Trade Development Council figures ...

Zipcar conducted a member survey for its Zipvan offering and received favorable response from 40% members expressing interest in Zipvans if available ...

The company aims to open 86 new outlets in Washington DC by the year 2020. In another agreement, the company has agreed to open 12 new restaurants in Des Moines, Iowa ...

Governments of multiple countries have considered passing similar legislation so the outcome of this lawsuit could really decide how things will shape up for the tobacco industry in the years to come ...

The land of the rising sun has now become the the land of the rising Yen which is making vehicles made in Japan more expensive for international customers ...

The foreign companies are required to invest at least $100 million, half of which has to be spent on developing back end infrastructure ...

While many retailers have been forced to close some stores, Bed Bath & Beyond has bucked the trend—opening new stores and increasing its square footage of store space ...

The retailer is using its official Twitter feed to feature “Walmart Specials” during the holidays. It is also posting shopper-friendly information on its Facebook page ...

‘Share a Coke’ was launched in Australia in September in which the 150 most common names in Australia were printed on the Coke bottles and cans ...

Such consolidation would significantly increase their negotiating power in deciding reimbursement rates with the drug retailers and may prompt likewise consolidation among the drug retailers like Walgreen as well ...

Shares of Walgreen have fallen more than 30% since it first announced in June that it will stop filling prescriptions for people covered by Express Scripts ...

The industry volume in Indonesia (~25% of Asian market) has been growing with a CAGR of 3-4%, along with the Philippines (~10% of Asian market), expanding at 2% ...

According to Bill Simon, Wal-Mart’s US chief, Wal-Mart did not pass higher prices charged by suppliers to customers suffering persistent unemployment ...

The apparent reason behind the decline is the confusion in the market which built up after American Eagle failed to revise its earnings guidance this quarter accordingly to a solid increase in its sales ...

As gross margins are destined to take the center seat in this quarter’s earnings result, we will be watching for the trends behind the improvement in margins for Q3 ...

This new offering, as well as the recently introduced individual single-serve packets, will continue to boost customer satisfaction and increase Heinz’s dominance in the ketchup segment ...

Nike features premium and value product lines, allowing consumers to move between Nike product lines (rather than to another brand) during tough economic times ...

Starbucks will need to demonstrate an ability to adapt to new market and market demands as it furthers investments into broader food and beverage categories ...

Like many retailers, the company has been hurt because its middle-income customers have cut back on spending as they face the challenges of the weak economy ...

Two new Mercedes models landed in dealer lots the past couple of weeks, which could help boost Daimler AG’s revenue from Mercedes-Benz cars in the coming months if sales trends continue ...

While the NHTSA is currently not concerned about the safety of other electric vehicles, any deterioration in public perception can hurt sales of electric vehicles ...

We expect that Ford’s focus upon introducing its full lineup of Ford branded vehicles, providing better fuel-efficiency and localizing its vehicles to suit local requirements will help the company gain market share in China ...

Wandell’s long-term strategy for Harley is running afoul with some of its dealers and also constraining inventories for some of its pricier models such as Touring ...

The idea is to provide consumers with as many choices as possible as well as give them the option to order food at non-traditional hours ...

We believe that the 9,900 unit-chain restaurant contributes around 63% to the total stock price of Dunkin Brands. The rest is mainly contributed by Baskin-Robbins ...

While The Run’s trailer and the heavy marketing to promote the game, did evoke a craze amongst the gaming community, but post launch both reviews and sales results have been disappointing ...

Even if you compare the urban income to the national average for U.S., it is roughly 1/4 times. Thus, Chinese people pay a disproportionately higher price for the same coffee than U.S. consumers ...

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services

Deutsche Bank entered into talks with takers for its asset management business this week with the bank announcing its plans to spin-off this unit last week to raise capital to meet stringent capital requirements ...

The banking group announced a top-level reorganization yesterday, with Maureen Miskovic ousted from her job as the group’s Chief Risk Officer (CRO) ...

CME Group is reportedly in talks with the China Security Regulatory Commission to start a pilot project that would allow some futures companies from mainland China to buy and sell futures on the CME Group’s exchange ...

As credit card companies are looking for best ways to integrate social networking opportunities into their delivery process, the deal would benefit Discover in building its brand awareness among online customers ...

And while much of the decline is indeed justified, we do not believe that the bank’s troubles even combined with the European debt situation, warrant the current market price of ~$5.50 ...

The central banks agreed to reduce the price of U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points (0.5%) to make funds available to them at a cheaper rate in times of a crisis ...

The Trefis price estimates for NYSE is ahead of the current market price at $33 and implies a stock valuation of around $8.7 billion. Nasdaq looks fairly valued at around $25 according to Trefis ...

The board remains confident that shareholders’ value will be maximized most by continuing with the current strategy, of the various options considered that included sale of the company ...

This growth is set to accelerate in the coming decade, making Prudential a wise bet for a globally minded investor looking for conservative but solid growth in the financial services sector ...

The extreme volatility in capital markets across the globe has seen almost all major banks reporting negative operational revenues from their sales & trading unit last quarter ...

The main instruments are bilateral swap agreements among major nations so that any country can draw on any currency as needed. In addition the Fed has lowered the price for US dollar swap arrangements ...

Wells Fargo's focus on mortgage lending could translate into big profits if low mortgage rates and cheap property entice enough Americans to jump into the housing market ...

Our analysis suggests that the firm has a long way to go before it can repay its taxpayer bailouts and even longer before it can return to sustained profitability and growth ...

The growing need for more efficient and enhanced compliance monitoring in the present regulatory environment will result in more business for the company ...

Investors will likely be watching Deutsche Bank’s ticker very closely following reports that the largest German bank is likely to lend out considerably less money this year compared to last year ...

Deutsche Bank put its weight behind Nokia’s claims of strong Lumia sales and reaffirmed its earlier expectation that the company will be able to meet the bank’s estimate of 2 million unit sales by the end of this quarter ...

The new price estimate is still nearly 40% above the stock’s current market price – the result of the extremely pessimistic market sentiment toward all banks with exposure to Europe ...

As economic uncertainty leads consumers to increase (or plan to increase) their savings, investment advisers are offering portfolios to suit their specific needs ...

The SEC had proposed a $285 million settlement with Citigroup over the bank’s sale of toxic mortgage debt which contributed to the economic downturn of 2008 ...

The $18 billion industry fund has cited the growing number and increasing sophistication of investment management as the reason to change to State Street, ending its decade long relationship with NAS ...

All these banks are required to detail the impact of a series of rather adverse economic situations - both domestic and international – on their businesses ...

Barclays stirred up a hornet’s nest in the U.K. early last week when reports detailed the extremely bloated compensations paid by the British bank to its chief executives. ...

 

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Energy & Natural Resources

Solar stocks such as Suntech Power suffered the latest blow in the ongoing industry-wide shakeout as the U.K government slashed its Feed in Tariff (FiT) subsidies by more than half ...

The 3.8 MW plant will be largest built by La Compagnie du Vent to date and will generate approximately 6,270,000 Kilowatt hours (KWh) of electricity every year ...

The $15.7 billion LNG export project could see costs escalate by 5% because of appreciation in the Australian Dollar (in which the investment is denominated) ...

With government policy favoring exploration and the reduced opposition of environmentalists in China, shale exploration may ramp up quickly in the country ...

This large-scale decline in solar stocks is more indicative of investors’ fears than in changes in the solar sector, which is growing as a whole ...

These two new blocks add to BP’s existing portfolio of projects in Indonesia, which include four coal bed methane production contracts in Kalimantan and three conventional gas blocks in Papua ...

The announcement, which was made in the Russian Economic and Financial Forum being held in Germany, was seen as the Russian government’s efforts to channel investment into the Arctic to boost production ...

Anadarko doubled its reserve estimates for natural gas in Offshore area 1 in Mozambique after encountering gas in one of its latest appraisal wells ...

We believe that Exxon’s vast experience in handling international negotiations and its formidable position in the oil industry make it unlikely that the Iraqi government would consider banning the company from operating in the country ...

The company recently announced an impressive milestone: cumulative production since 2002 totaling 66 million solar modules, placing First Solar at the head of the pack here in the U.S. ...

The company’s ‘Land Grab’ strategy is questionable, considering that if the company continues to collect the resources at this rate, then the leasing cash outflow may outrun the company’s 2012 operating cash by approximately $6 billion ...

Chevron risks being turned into an example for other oil firms venturing into the offshore sector in Brazil as the government tries to minimize oversights that lead to oil spills in the future ...

Anadarko had a good week coming to operations as it announced new exploration opportunities in the Niobrara oil field in Colorado and news came in that the Teak prospect in Ghana may be larger than expected ...   (Trefis Pro Exclusive) Basic Materials

The JV will also help Rio Tinto gain an access to the highly valuable resources of the undersupplied metal and China to develop its resources internally, essential to reduce its reliance on imports ...

The Reko Diq mine region is closely watched by many industry experts due to the high quality copper ore and the various political issues in the region ...

The news comes at an opportune time for Alcoa, which last summer launched new aluminum alloys that it says can lower the cost, weight and maintenance of aircraft compared with the composites currently used ...

Even with the possibility of a slowdown in the global economy, the demand for Titanium Dioxide looks robust for the upcoming years, where it continues to remain an under-supplied item ...

Although the company has taken all the essential steps to make sure that the water supply and the eco-balance are maintained in the region, the locals are not willing to comply ...

Neither Alcoa nor Embraer management speculated on the impact of the joint venture, but it is yet another sign AA is heading in the right direction in spite of the global economic environment ...

Cliffs is planning to ship its chromite produce from the Ring of Fire area in Northern Ontario to international markets, primarily China and Asia, in order to serve the growing demand from Chinese smelters ...

We expect that the company’s initiatives to develop high-end engineered products and its focus on the automotive sector will help drive sales going forward, hence our still-bullish price estimate ...

Newmont can breathe a sigh of relief as the company and workers at the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia were able to reach a settlement regarding the calculation of compensation for overtime duty ...

 

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Industrials & Transportation

We believe that Caterpillar’s growth potential in India in the near-medium term will be limited, but these investments will likely yield handsome dividends in the long-term as expanding economy drives India’s need for resources ...

Transocean, the world’s largest oil and gas drilling contractor, continues to be dogged by woes nineteen months after the explosion of its Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico ...

Increased rigs, an old-fashioned oil boon in North Dakota and Texas and a slowly strengthening economy all bode well for Baker Hughes ...

By separating charges for optional extras, the carrier has built up a sizable ancillary revenue stream which enables it to partially offset high operating costs ...

New funding for the F-22 will contribute to Lockheed’s growing share of DoD spending while also potentially stemming the decline in its aeronautics EBITDA margin ...

As long as traffic persists in outpacing capacity, this judicious strategy should allow JetBlue to gain market share even as the wider industry enters a downturn ...

If Boeing manages to secure exclusivity, however, it would be the latest in a string of high-profile coups for the manufacturer, continuing a trend which could send its global market share above 40% ...

The new staffers will focus on developing software to run intelligent machines and equipment, speeding the pace of innovation, collaboration, and commercialization of new technologies ...

As long as demand holds steady with the higher rates, we forecast that Domestic Ground Package revenues will continue growing from $7.88 per item this year to $9.88 by 2018 ...

JetBlue’s timing is almost perfect as Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA) expects a spike in tourism to Jamaica as travelers come to participate in Jamaica’s 50th Homecoming in 2012 ...

Favorable financing terms and leaseback deals allow American to go forward with its fleet upgrade, despite poor overall economic conditions ...

The union will try to push for extending travel expense coverage by companies during this period, even as it is ready to accept wage and health care norms recommended by the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) ...









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