China: Trade Numbers Crash

May 8th, 2015
in econ_news

Econintersect:  Chinese imports and exports fell sharply and unexpectedly in April, dashing hopes for a spring rebound to the country's relatively moribund foreign trade activities.  The year-over-year decline for exports was 6.4%, much weaker than the 2.4% increase expected, but better than the 15% decline in March.  Imports dropped by 16% from April 2014, worse than the expected 12% decline, and a bigger collapse than the large 12.7% decline in March.  The balance of trade remained positive with a surplus of $34 billion, bigger than the number for March ($31 billion).

shipping.container.empty

Follow up:

The following graphics from Trading Economics and annotated by Econintersect show the consistency of decline for Chinese trading activity so far in 2015.  Exports have declined year-over-year for three of the first four months of this year, while imports have declined all four months.  The decline in exports can be considered to reflect softening of the global economy, while lower imports indicate a softening of the Chinese domestic economy.  Of course, for a country with a large positive trade balance such as China, weaker imports are in part a consequence of fewer exports.

china.exports.2015.april.annotated

china.imports.2015.april.annotated

Bloomberg had the following comment:

Stronger demand from a recovering U.S. economy is being offset by sluggishness in Europe and a slide in shipments to Japan, compounding challenges for a nation facing rising labor costs and a strong currency.

Many analysts expect China to continue recent monetary easing actions.  CNBC quoted Paul Mackel, head of Asia FX Research of HSBC:

"I think you'll still see some couple policy rate cuts here, maybe 25-50 basis points, in the next few months or couple of quarters."

And also from CNBC, Li Wei, , the China and Asia economist for Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney:

"Exports, once regarded as a stabilizer for growth this year, are now becoming a downside risk.  The government has to do more to help growth."

Sources:









Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.















 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved