China GDP Growth Drops to New Low

April 15th, 2015
in News, econ_news, syndication

Econintersect:  For the year 2014 China's GDP growth dropped to a calendar year level not seen since 1990, 7.4%, missing the government's target of 7.5%.  The first quarter 2015 has  come in even lower at 7.0% growth year-over-year.  Even though this was the consensus expectation reported by Bloomberg 13 April, Asia-Pacicifc stocks immediately dropped an average of 0.3%, which followed declines in many markets on Monday. Reuters reports that many are suggesting that the Chinese government will "roll out more policy stimulus to avert a sharper slowdown".


Follow up:

The following graph shows the two year trend for GDP growth.  The current quarter is below the previous quarter by the same amount as the second quarter of 2013 dropped from Q1 2013.  That sequence was followed by a very strong quarter.  We will be watching to see if the same can occur this year.


The year-over-year GDP growth back to 1990 is shown in the next graph, data plotted for every quarter.  The only times that a quarterly y-o-y print as low as 7% has been during times of financial crisis:  The 1998 Asian financial crisis, the peak of the bubble and the 2001 recession.

The following graph from Fortune shows the calendar year real GDP growth numbers for China since 1992.



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