December 8 Weather and Climate Report: Looking Ahead to the State of Ocean Cycles in 2050

December 8th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

by Sig Silber

El Nino may already be on the wane at least temporarily. In this report I show a method for forecasting the probability of drought in different parts of the Lower 48 through 2050. It can be looked at as one reasonable scenario. It shows how drought moves around the Lower 48 in response to the condition of our oceans. This type of information can be very useful to all those impacted by drought or non-drought.

Follow up:

Short-term Outlook

Let us take a look at the 8 - 14 day outlook that was issued today December 8, 2014. It will auto-update every day so it will be changing day by day (and thus be up to date whenever you elect to read this report) but my comments may become out of sync with the map since my comments do not auto-update. Caution is required right now because the outlook especially re precipitation in the West has been changing pretty much on a daily basis so clearly there are some issues relative to predictions probably due to the jet stream being hard to predict. This animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way. One can imagine that attempting to forecast this 6 - 14 days out is quite challenging. And yet, NOAA has a high level of confidence in todays' 6 - 14 Day Outlook.

I am only showing the "second week" namely the day 8 -14 outlook. The first week can be found in Part II of my report but 8 - 14 days covers most of the 6 - 14 day period.

 

Temperature forecast 814

And here is the Updated December Temperature Outlook released November 30.

Updated December Temperature Outlook

As you can see, December through the first half looks to be warmer than projected in the Outlook issued on November 30.

And here is the 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook issued today (but it will also auto-update and change every day so my comments may become out of sync with the map).

Precipitation Forecast 814

And here is the updated December Precipitation Outlook released November 30.

Updated December Precipitation Outlook

The first half of December is looking to be in line with the prior Monthly Outlook for the West but the East Coast is looking to be drier than was previously predicted. This actually is a trend in the Outlooks going back to the Early Precipitation Outlook for December.

And excerpts from the NOAA discussion covering todays 6 - 14 Day Outlook.

"6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 18 2014

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC  APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PACIFIC  JET. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WHILE A TROUGH IS  PREDICTED TO BE OFF THE EAST COAST. TODAY'S 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND INDICATES  ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC AND GULF COASTS. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE LOW SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND  HIGHER SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, HOWEVER THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CANADA.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. LEADING TO  ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR  PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  FORECAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA, WHERE  ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THE PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RETURN FLOW AROUND MEAN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST LEADS TO  ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALONG A PASSING FRONT  EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE PREDICTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST, AND PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AND FORECAST TOOL AGREEMENT.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 16 - 22 2014

ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, WITH SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM THE 6-10 DAY TO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. LEADING TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMALTEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES CHANCES FOR  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, INCLUDING THE U.S. WEST, SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES  REGION AND NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS FOR THE WESTERN GULF COAST FOLLOWING A PASSING  FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN TOOLS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS."

Analogs to Current Conditions

Now let us take a more detailed look at the "Analogs" which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. "Analog" means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 - 14 day Outlook.

What are they telling us today?

Analog

Centered

Day

ENSO

Phase

PDO AMO Other Comments
1979 December 17
Neutral
+
-

1982, November 24
El Nino
+ -
Arrived weak. Became strong.
1982, December 12
El Nino
+ - Modoki Type I
1986, December 18
El Nino
+ - Modoki Type I
1986, December 19
El Nino
+
- Impacted two winters
2005, December 21 La Nina - +
2011, November 17
Neutral
-
+
2012, November 18
La Nina
- +

The analogs are far less indicative of El Nino conditions than last week. Of most interest is the 1982 El Nino which arrived late and weak but evolved into a very strong El Nino. This is worth watching. The 1986 El Nino was a Modoki Type I which has a different pattern of impacts worldwide. For the Southwest, it produced significant precipitation for two winters. Every El Nino and La Nina is different so the general rules on impacts are just that - general rules.

Sometimes it is useful to take a look at the location of the Jet Stream or Jet Streams.

Current Jet Stream

And sometimes the forecast is revealing. This is the forecast out five days. It is somewhat redundant to the link provided earlier but this set of graphics and the animation focus on North America rather than the journey of the Pacific Jet Stream as it crosses the Pacific.

Jet Stream Five Days Out

To see it in animation, click here. At the time this article was published, the animation shows a tendency for there to be a Southern Branch of the Polar Jet Stream in addition to the usual Northern Branch. It can bring storms further south than usual.

This is consistent in some cases with an El Nino. One interesting impact at least in the short run is that Colorado may be too far south to be impacted by the Northern Stream of the Polar Jet and too far north to be impacted by the Southern Stream. We will see if this pattern continues.

El Nino Discussion

Now let us look at the latest NOAA Hovmollers.

First Sea Surface Temperatures

December 8, 2014 Low Level SST

Over to the left side of the graphic at 160E at the bottom you can see where there has been some warm surface water. Also you see more pockets of warmer water further east. Overall it seems to be becoming less widespread but is still sufficiently warm in the Central Pacific where the ONI Index is measured to indicate El Nino "conditions". I suspect that might change within two months. See discussion of the Kelvin Waves later in this report.

El Nino Zones

Of most interest to NOAA is 120 W to 170 W as that is where the ONI Index is measured. More information can be found here. If you look at the color coding in the above Hovmoller they are looking for shades where the redder the better re conditions being El Nino but so far it is just showing shades of tan and brown i.e. marginal especially when averaged over the entire area of interest. But that explains why we have a situation where some of the factors are in place for an El Nino but so far it is marginal at best.

And now the low-level wind anomalies.

Dec 8, 2014 Low Level Wind Anomalies

If anything, this looks this week more like La Nina conditions than El Nino conditions. The bottom shows the most recent readings as this type of graphic is read from top to bottom. The "reddish" area is much reduced and there is much more "blue" over towards Ecuador. This past week the incipient El Nino has been severely wounded.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is not cooperating this week and you can find the daily and 30 and 90 day averages here. It seems that the SOI is fluctuating on a weekly basis from strongly negative to barely negative and the last few days has actually been positive. You can see the impact of this in the above Hovmoller. With the SOI there is always a cause and effect issue. Is the SOI a cause of or a result of warm water being to the east? The SOI is an imperfect index as the two reference points are not on the Equator. The 30 day average is now not even marginal for El Nino conditions and is not suggestive of El Nino conditions being in place.  Today's reading is  +4.98 which is an indication of a short-term tendency to disassemble this potential El Nino by allowing the normal Easterlies to blow the warm water back to the Pacific Warm Pool.

2 Dec 2014                           -7.89

3 Dec 2014                           -6.02

4 Dec 2014                           -3.43

5 Dec 2014                           -0.57

6 Dec 2014                            1.87

7 Dec 2014                          10.33

8 Dec 2014                           4.98

You can not deduce anything from one day but it reminds us that situations can change rapidly. Given that -8.0 is often considered the threshold for El Nino conditions you can see that August and October were actually more favorable for the development of an El Nino than November which was just barely marginal and December has started out to be very unfavorable for an El Nino. The 30 (important) and 90 day averages of the SOI are now not even marginal for what is associated with an El Nino.

And then the third part of the equation (there are more than three but I focus on three): Kelvin Waves.

Dec 8, 2014 Kelvin Waves

And here we do have a signal of warm water moving east but it does not have the intensity of the the Kelvin Wave earlier this year but it does seem to be more potent than the immediately prior Kelvin wave. It is important to remember that warm water at the surface is more prone to evaporate thus transferring heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and thus dissipating the warm water anomaly at the sea surface. That is one reason why the El Nino phase of ENSO is generally short lived.

I believe that this Kelvin Wave is the only reason for continued optimism that we will have an El Nino this year but it will be late arriving if it arrives at all. NOAA has now highlighted what they consider to be the upwelling phase of this Kelvin Wave which is the cooling phase and suggests the termination of this El Nino or its transformation into a Modoki i.e. a Central Pacific El Nino which behaves very differently in terms of weather impacts than a traditional/canonical El Nino. Notice that the upwelling phase is still warmer than normal so clearly we have a warm event but most likely not warm enough to qualify as an El Nino. That is why I believe this winter will most likely have a "near El Nino) or an El Nino which will arrive weak, possibly then get weaker (just extrapolating from this Hovmoller as to where the warm water will be in a month), but could later be reinforced by another Kelvin Wave and last longer than currently forecast. The "later" increasingly appears to be this summer and next winter.

And one more:

Dec 8,2014CFS.v2

I presented this graphic last week. It is a modified version of the graphic that appears on Page II of this Report. It is modified by NOAA to be consistent with the maps on the right which can be found here. Although the caption says in part that this graphic indicates that there will be an El Nino lasting into Mid- 2015, that is a bit misleading in that if the model predictions are correct, El Nino conditions will end in February and this will certainly not be classified as an El Nino. Ok, they added "or warm-neutral conditions" to the captian this week. To me it is a deliberate attempt to be deceptive.

So this continues to look to me like a weak version of the 1982/1983 El Nino and may last longer than NOAA thinks but have different impacts than they think also. We shall see. I am still thinking the Japanese (and the Australians) sized this up from the start and that this is really more like a Modoki than a traditional El Nino and that weather patterns will be shifted some number of degrees further west than would be the case for a traditional El Nino. This may not happen right away as so far this looks like a traditional El Nino or "near" El Nino but it may turn out to be a two-year event.

I still do not see a traditional El Nino of any significant strength likely to happen this winter, especially in the early part of winter, although a weak El Nino appears to be making its presence known. It appears to be a very complicated situation. There are many possibilities on the table in my opinion:

  • A short weak traditional El Nino which arrives late. (The NOAA projection)
  • A short weak traditional El Nino which arrives late and then weakens
  • A weak traditional El Nino arriving late but being reinforced and turning into a long lasting stronger traditional El Nino. (Not forecast by NOAA but not inconsistent either) This would be somewhat like the 1982/1983 Super El Nino but not likely to be strong this year.
  • A weak traditional El Nino that turns into a Modoki next year (The Japanese Forecast)
  • Other variations of the above all related to warmer water further east than usual in the ENSO cycle but not necessarily translating into the usual El Nino that would normally be here now if it fit the usual mold.

This was presumably available last Monday but I did not notice it so I will provide it now. Australia has their own model which updates every two weeks. It was updated on November 30.

POAMA

Notice the criteria for achieving El Nino or La Nina status are different than that used by most others. And curiously, the view from Australia with respect to the development of an El Nino this year has until now been pretty much more subdued than the view from the U.S. This latest run reverses the Mid-November view which called for a borderline El Nino while this now is instead projecting a gradual return to ENSO neutral but that is not fully represented in the discussion.

"Issued on 2 December 2014

Many climate indicators remain close to El Niño thresholds, with climate model outlooks suggesting further intensification of conditions remains likely. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance that El Niño will be declared in the coming months. Whether or not an El Niño fully develops, a number of El Niño-like impacts have already emerged.

Several ENSO indicators are currently close to, or exceed, El Niño thresholds. These include tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, which have now exceeded El Niño levels for a month, and the Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained at or near El Niño levels for three months. Other indicators, such as tropical cloud, trade winds and rainfall patterns, have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. This indicates a typical El Niño ocean-atmosphere interaction may not be fully locked in.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, so it also remains possible that the ocean and atmosphere will fully couple in the coming weeks to months. If an El Niño is established, models suggest it will be weak, or moderate at most. Regardless of whether an El Niño is declared, El Niño-like effects are likely, as shown by the Bureau's December-February Climate Outlook, which shows a drier and warmer summer is likely for many parts of Australia. Some El Niño-like impacts have already been seen this spring in Australia and several regions around the globe, including Asia, South America and southern Africa."

Predicting the State of Ocean Cycles Going Forward and the Impact on the Climate of the Lower 48 States.

The paper I want to discuss this evening can be found here.

Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction
of East Asian surface air temperature
LUO FeiFei & LI ShuangLin

First I want to begin with some information from this paper which explains the three most important ocean cycles.

"The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a leading fluctuation pattern of SST in the North Atlantic region, which has been linked to the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in many models (Delworth and Mann, 2000; Enfield et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005, 2007; Knight et al., 2005). The AMO has a period of 65 years and an amplitude of 0.4°C in instrumental records (Delworth and Mann, 2000; Enfield et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005). Following earlier AMO definitions (Enfield et al., 2001; Wang et al., 2009), the AMO index was defined as the annual averaged low-frequency SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Atlantic basin (0°-60°N, 75°-7.5°W). The temporal evolution of AMO index (dashed line in Figure 1(a)) is characterized by two cold phases from the early-1900s to the late-1920s and from the mid-1960s to the 1990s, and two warm phases from the 1930s to the 1960s and from the mid-1990s until now. These are in agreement with previous studies (Delworth and Mann, 2000; Enfield et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005, 2007; Knight et al., 2005; Wang et al., 2009). Figure 2(a) shows that the AMO explains approximately 50% of the internal decadal variance of SSTs over the North Atlantic. In particular, the proportions of variance are greater than 70% over the tropical and eastern North Atlantic. Besides, the proportion is approximately 50% in the western tropical Pacific.


Editor's Note: I need to understand this better but I believe that although the IPO covers both the North Pacific and South Pacific, the main difference is that the PDO excludes the tropics. Thus the IPO is more influenced by the ENSO Cycle. It thus might be a better index although it certainly was not used by McCabe et al so that needs to be considered. On the other hand, depending on the smoothing algorithm used, the IPO might be very similar to the PDO. In this paper only the low frequency part of the cycle is utilized so that means that ENSO has probably been removed. At any rate I am using the authors' analysis of the IPO as a surrogate for the PDO.


The Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is the decadal climate variability in the leading Pacific SST pattern. During the positive phase, the IPO is marked mainly by cool anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of the South and North Pacific, while it is warm along the west coast of the United States and the tropical Pacific (Power et al., 1999; Folland et al., 1999). The situation is opposite in the negative phase. The IPO index is defined as the time series of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of SSTAs in the Pacific basin (60°S-60°N, 120°E-80°W) (Power et al., 1999; Folland et al., 1999). The first mode accounts for 43% of Pacific SSTs. The IPO (dashed line in Figure 1(b)) experiences one cold period from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s, and two warm periods from the 1920s to 1940s and from the 1970s to 1990s. The warm phase of the IPO shifts to a cold phase at the beginning of the 21st century. This is consistent with previous results (Folland et al., 1999).The IPO is the most important in the tropical mid-eastern Pacific, explaining 60% of the variance. In the mid-high latitudes of the Pacific, the proportion is approximately 50% ).

The Indian Ocean Basin-wide Decadal (IOBD) pattern is characterized by a uniform basin-wide warming or cooling in the Indian Ocean on the decadal timescale (Allan et al., 1995; Li et al., 2012). The IOBD pattern is defined as the leading EOF of SSTAs over the Indian Ocean (20°S-25°N, 35°-120°E), which explains 70% of the total variance. From the dashed line in Figure 1(c), it can be seen that the IOBD pattern has a warm period from the 1870s to the late 1880s, and subsequently moves into a cold phase with a weak amplitude in the 1890s until the 1950s. The IOBD pattern remains in a cold phase from the 1950s to 1980s, and thereafter shifts to a warm phase. Figure 2(c) shows that the IOBD pattern is more important over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific (eastern Philippine Sea) and explains approximately 60% of the variance. Accordingly, the AMO, IPO, and IOBD pattern represent the leading mode of the internal decadal variance of SST in the North Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean, respectively. The sum of the proportions of variance of the three modes is greater than 90% over most of the North Atlantic, tropical mid-eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean, and parts of the western Pacific."

Notice that each of the three ocean cycles tend to also influence sea surface temperatures (SST) in the other two oceans.  Thus it is reasonable to conclude that the combination of the phases of the three ocean cycles impact the climate of various parts of the World.

Today we will talk about North America. Although the climate of North American may be influenced by all three ocean cycles as far as I know only the impact of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific has been carefully studied. So that is what I will focus on in this weekly report. But we should not forget that some of the variance observed by McCabe et al in their work might have been explained by the IOBD if it had been included.

The following Graphic from the Luo and Li paper is very interesting.

ShaungLinLi Ocean Cycle Decadal Projections

Now I have modified the above to line up some key dates in the graphics namely the beginning of decades starting from the one we are in and looking forward. The decades are numbered across the top as "1", "2", "3", "4".

ShaungLinLi Ocean Cycle Projections 10 Year Increments with Numbers

The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here.

The key maps are shown below:

McCabe Maps modified to include the subtitles

You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with two combinations of AMO and PDO phases i.e. four combinations.

In reality there are more than four combinations since for example AMO positive can cover years where the index is just barely positive to the years where the index is most positive. That may be possible to deal with using a software package but working with maps averaging the years where the indicated combination occured makes for a more convenient way to display information but does not reflect that there is a continum of combinations of two indices.

So combining the work of McCabe et al with the work of Lou and Li , what can we say about these beginning years in the decade which started in 2014 and subsequent decades out into our future?

1. 2010

This was clearly AMO+/PDO-. This is McCabe Condition D and full explains the approximately twice a century severe drought in the Southwest and also in the Great Lakes area. 

2. 2020

This might be PDO+/AMO+ to AMO Neutral. This might be somewhere between McCabe A and McCabe C but closer to McCabe C. McCabe C is associated with extreme drought in the Northern Tier west of the Great Lakes. McCabe C also is associated with a high probability of drought in the South Atlantic Coast states extending into the Mid-West.

3. 2030

PDO-/AMO Neutral. This might be somewhere between McCabe B and McCabe D. Note the IPO (which I am using as a surrogate for the PDO) is forecast by Lou and Li to be less negative at its low point presumably due to the combination of subcycles with different amplitudes within the IPO. Also notice the significant difference between McCabe B and McCabe D. This illustrates the importance of the Atlantic SST's

4. 2040

PDO+/AMO Neutral. This might be somewhere between McCabe A and McCabe C.  McCabe C seems to flip drought in the West from south to north. So McCabe A and McCabe B both spare the Southwest but the condition of the Atlantic may have a big impact on the Northern Tier west of the Great Lakes.  McCabe C also is associated with a high probability of drought in the South Atlantic Coast states extending into the Mid-West.

5. And dare we project out to say 2050? This might be PDO?/AMO-. That might result in conditions intermediate to McCabe A and McCabe B. McCabe B would raise the risk for drought in the Southeast including moderate probability of drought in Florida and small areas of extreme drought in other places. 

Caveats:

  • There is no intention of suggesting that the drought probability for a particular year in a particular geographic area can be predicted accurately with this methodology. It is intended to provided a reasonable scenario of how these probabilities might vary over time. This can be very useful for water planning.
  • The IPO is not the PDO but they are highly correlated.
  • The authors show signficant confidence intervals around their projections. i.e. the timing of the peaks and valleys of these cycles could fall in the shaded area of the graphic rather than exactly as shown.
  • Other authors might project these cycles slightly differently
  • I believe the authors have taken Global Warming into account. But RCP 4.5 may be considered by some as being too conservative.
  • The McCabe et all maps are maps of drought frequency. I am assumng they are highly inversely correlated with amounts of precipitation.

I have not tried to interpret the implications for each state in the Lower 48. The McCabe et al analysis is a mathematical analysis based on historical data. Underlying the data are climate patterns determined by mountains and interactions with Canada and Mexico. If I better understood all of these patterns I would feel more confident in making predictions state by state. I am hoping that my experiment with combining the emerging information on ocean cycles with the work of McCabe et al and similar will inspire others to undertake more work in this area. In Part II of this Report the information on three studies that have examined the lead and lags of ocean cycles is provided. The above analysis is based on one of the three papers. A second paper is very similar. I have not yet reached a final conclusion on the third paper. It may also be in basic agreement with the other two but I am not sure as I have had difficulty interpretting some parts of that paper. I am still working on that an may need to contact the authors.

Click Here for the Econointersect Weather and Climate Page where you will find:

  • NOAA and other agency graphics (including international agencies) that auto update. So this includes both short term- and seasonal "updates". It will ALWAYS be up to date even if my commentary on the graphics is not. I update my commentary when it seems necessary and certainly every Monday but some of these graphics auto update every six hours. This section of the report has been reorganized to make it easier to follow.
  • Economic and other Impacts of major weather events. Not sure there is any other place to obtain this information consistently other than very specialized subscription services.
  • Information on Climate Cycles both those which are fairly short term i.e. less than a decade in duration and multi-decadal cycles.
  • Economic and other Impacts of those Climate Cycles which are referred to by the IPCC as Internal Variability as opposed to secular Climate Change which is always in the same direction. Again I am not sure if there is another source for this information where it is pulled together in one place as I have.
  • Information on Anthropogenic Global Warming science i.e. the secular change in our climate that overlays both short term weather and historical climate cycles as well as black swan events like volcanic eruptions. I prefer to call this Global Warming as it is the warming that triggers the other changes.
  • Economic and other Impacts of Global Warming. The IPCC AR5 WG2 attempts to describe and quantify these and I have some excerpts from their report. Over time I will go beyond their report.

For now this is all in one article which may be a little difficult to navigate but that will soon change and the information will be accessed easily by topic. I have included a Table of Contents but so far have not implemented hyperlinks to move quickly to topics of most interest. For now you have to scroll down.









Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.















 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved