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Rail Week Ending 21 June 2014: Growth Is Good But Continues to Soften

June 26th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

Econintersect: Week 25 of 2014 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) grew according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Rail growth continues to be good, but this week is continuing the trend of softer growth.

Follow up:

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages:

Percent current rolling average  is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average 5.6% unchanged decelerating
13 week rolling average 6.9% unchanged decelerating
52 week rolling average 3.6% accelerating accelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending June 21, 2014 with 291,142 total carloads, up 0.9 percent compared with the same week last year. This was the highest week in history for total U.S. intermodal volume, topping the previous record set last week, reaching 272,553 units, up 7.8 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 563,695 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.2 percent compared with the same week last year.

Eight of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2013, including grain with 17,677 carloads, up 15 percent; and forest products with 11,998 carloads, up 12.2 percent. For the first 25 weeks of 2014, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 7,149,837 carloads, up 3.1 percent compared with the same point last year, and 6,377,674 intermodal units, up 5.9 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 25 weeks of 2014 was 13,527,511 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.4 percent from last year.

USA coal production is down 5.3% same week year-over-year - and coal accounts for well over 1/3rd of carloads.

Here is a look at the weekly data comparing it to the same week one year ago, backing out economically less intuitive coal and grain, and comparing growth year-to-date.

This Week
Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year 0.9% 7.8% 4.2%
Ignoring coal and grain 3.3%
Year Cumulative to Date 3.1% 5.9% 4.4%

 

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart

 

/images/z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended June 21, 2014:

  • U.S. coal production totaled approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 1.6% higher than last week's estimate and 5.3% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2013
  • Coal production east of the Mississippi River totaled 8.2 mmst
  • Coal production west of the Mississippi River totaled 10.4 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 463.2 mmst, 0.7% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2013








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