13 June 2014: ECRI's WLI Growth Unchanged and Still Forecasting Economic Growth to Come

June 20th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index continues to show growth - remaining in positive territory and at a level unchanged from the previous week. A positive number predicts economic expansion to come within the next six months. Also released this week were their coincident and lagging indices.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index was mixed. The growth rate was unchanged at a revised 4.4% (originally released as 4.5%) - however, the level of the index declined from 134.7 (originally released as 135.8) to 135.4.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The June update for May shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally month-to-month - and is now showing the rate of growth trend line within a narrow channel. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

US Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.2 from the revised March 104.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The April reading was initially reported as 104.7.

"With the USFIG reaching a 13-month high, underlying inflation pressures have begun to build," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May economy's rate of growth (released in June) improved this month and remains on an upward trendline.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI


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