14 February 2014: ECRI's WLI Continues to Degrade

February 21st, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index declined but remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. This post includes updated ECRI coincident and lagging index data.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

ECRI WLI Growth Slips

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew just 2.5% in the week ended Feb. 14, down from 3.2% growth the previous week. It was the third straight week in which the growth rate slowed.

The index itself was unchanged at 132.2. ECRI says that "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average." The January ECRI index growth rate jumped to 4.0% from 1.9% in December.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The February update for January shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally month-to-month - but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 101.4 from the December 100.7 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG stands well below its earlier highs, and is still close to October's 22-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January economy's rate of growth improved slightly.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI


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