Rail Week Ending 18 January 2014: A Partial Recovery

January 24th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

Econintersect: Week 3 of 2014 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) recovered somewhat from last week's terrible data according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). The rolling averages all have positive acceleration.

 

Follow up:

  • 4 week rolling average rate of growth is accelerating, and compared to the rolling average one year ago is also accelerating;
  • 13 week rolling average rate of growth is accelerating, and compared to the rolling average one year ago is also accelerating;
  • 52 week rolling average rate of growth is accelerating, and compared to the rolling average one year ago is also accelerating.

Note that although there is deceleration in the averages, they all indicate growth over the same period one year ago. A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Jan. 18, 2014 with 289,825 total U.S. carloads, up 4.5 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 267,428 units up 7.2 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 557,253 carloads and intermodal units, up 5.8 percent compared with the same week last year.

Eight of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2013, including nonmetallic minerals and products with 32,557 carloads, up 20.9 percent; and, petroleum and petroleum products with 15,708 carloads, up 13.3 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included metallic ores and metals with 25,509 carloads, down 1.5 percent.

For the first three weeks of 2014, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 793,520 carloads, down 0.7 percent from the same point last year, and 690,293 intermodal units, up 1.4 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first three weeks of 2014 was 1,483,813 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.3 percent from last year.

USA coal production is up 2.1% same week year-over-year - and coal accounts for almost half of carloads. The data would worse ignoring coal and grain.

This Week
Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year 4.5% 7.2% 5.8%
Ignoring coal and grain 5.9%
Year Cumulative to Date -0.7% 1.4% 0.3%

 

[click on graph below to enlarge]

 

Current Rail Chart

 

/images/z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended January 18, 2014:

  • U.S. coal production totaled approximately 19.1 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 3.9% higher than last week's estimate and 2.1% higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2013
  • Coal production east of the Mississippi River totaled 7.9 mmst
  • Coal production west of the Mississippi River totaled 11.1 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 48.0 mmst, 4.8% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2013
  • Source:









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