17 January 2014: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improvement Continues

January 24th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index improved moderately and remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI issued their December lagging index which is discussed below.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):


A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose declined last week, while the annualized growth rate improved.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index decreased to 133.9 in the week ended 17 January.

The index's annualized growth rate was 4.2 percent, up from 3.5 percent.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The January update for December shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally month-to-month - but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG



US Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.7 from the revised November 100.4 reading, originally reported 100.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains near October's 22-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The Decembers economy's rate of growth degraded slightly.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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