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Rail Week Ending 21 December 2013: Four Week Average Contracts YoY

December 27th, 2013
in econ_news, syndication

Econintersect: Week 51 of 2013 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) again contracted according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). The data continues to show a moderate slowing of railcar loads beginning around Thanksgiving relative to the growth seen in the period preceding.

 

Follow up:

  • Four week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, and is worse than the 4 week rolling average one year ago;
  • 13 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, but is better than the 13 week rolling average one year ago;
  • 52 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and is better than the 52 week rolling average one year ago.

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported mixed U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Dec. 21, 2013 with 289,528 total U.S. carloads, down 0.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 255,456 units, up 6.4 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 544,984 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.8 percent compared with the same week last year.

Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, including petroleum and petroleum products with 15,501 carloads, up 12.7 percent; and grain with 21,030 carloads, up 5.0 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included metallic ores and metals with 24,754 carloads, down 6.5 percent; and coal with 113,070 carloads, down 2.9 percent.

For the first 51 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 14,376,905 carloads, down 0.7 percent from the same point last year, and 12,659,296 intermodal units, up 4.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 51 weeks of 2013 was 27,036,201 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.7 percent from last year.

USA coal production is down 2.9% same week year-over-year (last weeks date as the EIA has not updated their website) - and coal accounts for almost half of carloads.

This Week
Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -0.3% 6.4% 2.8%
Ignoring coal and grain 0.9%
Year Cumulative to Date -0.7% 4.5% 1.7%

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart

/images/z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended December 14, 2013:

  • U.S. coal production totaled approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 3.1% higher than last week's estimate and 2.9% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2012
  • Coal production east of the Mississippi River totaled 8.2 mmst
  • Coal production west of the Mississippi River totaled 10.8 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 957.1 mmst, 1.9% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2012
  • Source: AAR

     

     









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