Econintersect: Week 29 of 2013 ending 20 July shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Railcar count is down, but intermodal count is up.
- Weekly overall data is down, but up marginally ignoring coal and grain;
- Four week rolling average is declining (seasonally normal), and the same as the rolling average one year ago;
- 13 week rolling average is improving, and better than the rolling average one year ago;
- 52 week rolling average is declining, but better than the rolling average one year ago;
Bottom line at this point, the dynamics clearly have become less good.
A summary of the data:
Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, led by petroleum and petroleum products, up 28 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included grain, down 9.1 percent.
For the first 29 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,020,326 carloads, down 1.5 percent from the same point last year, and 6,977,660 intermodal units, up 3.4 percent from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 29 weeks of 2013 was 14,997,986 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.7 percent from last year.
USA coal production is up 1.6% same week year-over-year, and coal over the last few months is becoming a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.
|This week Year-over-Year||-3.1%||0.9%||-1.3%|
|Ignoring coal and grain||1.8%|
|Year Cumulative to Date||-1.4%||3.5%||0.8%|
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
For the week ended July 20, 2013: