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28 Jun 2013: ECRI's WLI Growth Declines, Near 2013 Lowest Level

July 5th, 2013
in econ_news, syndication

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

The readings declined again - but the current levels of the WLI are at the bottom a narrow channel if viewed over 2013. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. This week, ECRI also updated their future inflation gauge (see below).

Follow up:

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

ECRI WLI Falls

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index decreased to 130.4 in the week ended June 28 from 130.6 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate pulled back to 5.3 percent from 5.8 percent, making for the lowest reading since early January.

 

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The June update for May shows the rate of economic growth again declined month-to-month - but is still positive. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Drops

 

Price pressures continue to lessen in June, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 103.3 last month from 103.7 in May and 105.5 in April. The gauge is designed to measure the economy's underlying price pressures and predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

"With the [index] falling further to a seven-month low, U.S. inflation pressures have clearly waned," says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI director.

 

ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index.. The May economy's rate of growth has remained in a very tight stable range since the end of the Great Recession - however, it appears to have some degradation (less good).

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

 









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