Econintersect: Eurostat has released Industrial Production (IP) numbers for January for both the Eurozone (EU17) and the full European Union (EU27). The results were the same: January was down 0.4% month-over-month. Year-over-year IP was down year-over-year for January, 1.3% for EU17 and 1.7% EU27.
The January IP numbers must be a disappointment to EU officials who have been reporting their expectation for economic recovery in 2013, a dividend from their successful austerity programs. These expectations were reported by GEI News on February 24.
UK IP fell unexpectedly fell in January 2013, 1.2% lower than for December. Manufacturing declined even more, -1.5%. The results were a big surprise; an increase of 0.1% had been the consensus from a Bloomberg News survey of 29 economists. Fears have been expressed that Britain may slip into a triple-dip recession.
Here is a revealing graphic from the Eurostat press release:
Click on graph for larger image.
IP has been in decline for Europe for almost two full years.
Here is a summary from the Eurostat press release:
In January 2013 compared with December 2012, production of durable consumer goods fell by 1.4% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU27. Capital goods decreased by 1.2% in both zones. Production of energy dropped by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU27. Intermediate goods rose by 0.1% in the euro area and fell by 0.1% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.9% and 1.3% respectively.
Among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in nine and rose in nine. The largest decreases were registered in Finland (-4.1%), Luxembourg (-3.8%) and Latvia (-3.5%), and the highest increases in Lithuania (+4.4%), Denmark (+4.3%) and Portugal (+3.5%).
In January 2013 compared with January 2012, production of durable consumer goods fell by 5.5% in the euro area and by 4.3% in the EU27. Intermediate goods dropped by 3.1% and 3.4% respectively. Capital goods decreased by 2.6% in both zones. Production of energy increased by 0.9% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.1% and 2.2% respectively.
Among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in eleven and rose in seven. The largest decreases were registered in Sweden (-5.9%), Finland (-5.4%), Greece and Spain (both -5.0%), and the highest increases in Bulgaria and Lithuania (both +8.0%) and Estonia (+5.5%).
- Industrial production down by 0.4% in euro area and in EU27 (Eurostat News Release, 13 March 2013)
- U.K. Industrial Output Unexpectedly Falls on Oil, Gas (Jennifer Ryan and Scott Hamilton, Bloomberg, 13 March 2013)
- Europe: Sharp Contraction in 4Q 2012 (GEI News, 15 February 2013)
- EU: Deeper Recession Forecast (GEI News 24 February 2013)