Econintersect: Week 01 of 2013 ending January 5 shows same week total rail traffic well below 2012 levels according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). In fact, the levels both last week and this week were lower than any week in the last two years.
- The carload portion of rail traffic showed same week traffic contracted 12.1 % (versus last week's 13.8%).
- Excluding coal and grain (which are not an economic indicator), rail carloads contracted at -4.5% (last week -6.0%) same week year-over-year.
- Intermodal same week traffic contracted 8.0% (versus last week's -14.0%)
- Total same week rail traffic contracted 12.1% (versus last week's -13.3%)
USA coal production is down 17.0 % same week year-over-year, and the cumulative effect on rail carloads continues to drag traffic down.
“Four of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, with petroleum products, up 53.6 percent; coke, up 12.5 percent, and lumber and wood products, up 6 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included iron and steel scrap, down 29.3 percent; motor vehicles and equipment, down 20.6 percent, and coal, down 19.2 percent.”
The majority of the reason for rail year-to-date contraction is coal and grain movements - which would only effect the profitability of railroads, and not an economic indicator as coal is an alternative fuel to oil and natural gas.
|This week Year-over-Year||-12.1%||-8.0%||-11.6%|
|This week without coal and grain
|Year Cumulative to Date||-12.1%||-8.0%||-11.6%|
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
Total (cumulative) year-to-date traffic is contracting year-over-year.
For the week ended January 05, 2013: