Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 365,000 vs the 372,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average is up from 356,750 (reported last week) to 360,000 due in part to upward revision of the previous week’s data.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data – specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see bottom graph below). The initial claims are 4.5% lower (up from 5.4% last week) than they were in this week in 2011. Claims remain elevated from the trend lines seen for most of 2012 until November.
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending December 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average of 359,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending December 22, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 22 was 3,245,000, an increase of 44,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,201,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,224,250, an increase of 6,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,217,750.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2010 (blue line), 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line)