February 10th, 2012
Econintersect: Economic forecasters assembled by the Philadelphia Fed see little change to their last forecast.
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks mostly unchanged from that of three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.4 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growing 2.3 percent in 2012, down from the previous estimate of 2.4 percent. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.7 percent in 2013, 3.0 percent in 2014, and 3.1 percent in 2015.
The forecasters are polled quarterly on their thoughts on economic growth, employment and inflation. The majority of the forecasters do not see a recession. Overall they see the risk of a negative quarter:
1Q2012 - from 16.6% to 9.5%
2Q2012 - from 17.3% to 13.4%
3Q2012 - from 17.1% to 14.7%
4Q2012 - from 17.0% to 15.8%
1Q2013 - now 15.8%
The chance of a negative quarter reduced from their 3Q2011 forecast.
The forecasters have revised downward the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters. For the current quarter, they predict a 9.5 percent chance of negative growth, down from 16.6 percent in the survey of three months ago. As the table below shows, the panelists have also made downward revisions to their forecasts for the following three quarters.
Over the next ten years, the forecasters expect inflation in the 2.3% range - down from 2.5% for the 4Q2011 poll.
source: Philly Fed