Conference Board: More Robust Job Growth this Quarter

February 6th, 2012
in econ_news

by Guest Author Dwaine van Vuuren, PowerStocks Investment Research

help-wantedSMALLEconintersect:  Everyone treats employment figures as co-incident indication of an economy’s status but a very useful leading economic indicator that deploys a wide range of labour market data is the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI).

The figures were updated today and according to Gad Lavanon from the Conference Board:

“The Employment Trends Index has been improving rapidly for four straight months, suggesting somewhat more robust job growth is likely to continue in this quarter.”

Follow up:

The ETI is one of the 9 components of our Composite SuperIndex and one of 4 leading indicators used by the SuperIndex. We deploy rate of change of the ETI for recession lead-signalling as shown below. The implied probability of recession is 0.1%. The system has an average lead of 6.5 months (5.5 months to the real-time observer) with a standard deviation of only 2 months in the 39 years since 1973. The ETI joins the Conference Board LEI in depicting low probability of recession.

dwaine super index 6 feb 2012

Click on graph for larger image.

Authors note: Dwaine van Vuuren is CEO of PowerStocks Investment Research, a South African-based provider of investment research and specialist in recession forecasting/dating. If you would like to receive the next 4 weeks SuperIndex Recession Reports for free, just email us at research@powerstocks.co.za with FREE SUPERINDEX ECONINTERSECT in the subject line.

Sources and References:

 

 









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