SF Fed: Odds of U.S. Recession Greater than 50%

November 15th, 2011
in econ_news

recession Econintersect:  According to a report from Reuters, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has issued a report that says the odds of a U.S. recession.  The odds are presented in vague terms as greater than 50% by the end of 2012.  The report is more optimistic if a recession is avoided in 2012, saying that, in such an eventuality, the chances of a recession in 2013 “will recede rapidly.  Foreign events, especially in Europe, were cited as the biggest source of danger to the U.S. economy.

Follow up:

From Yahoo News:

The weak U.S. economy is more than usually vulnerable to turbulence beyond its borders, as the unexpectedly severe U.S. effects from Japan's devastating earthquake in March demonstrates, the researchers said.

"A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession," wrote Travis Berge, Early Elias and Oscar Jorda in the latest San Francisco Fed Economic Letter. "However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013.

The Fed report indicates the recession outlook is becoming more negative.  The Yahoo article says that a Reuters survey of primary dealers published November 4 put the odds around 33%.  Big Haber says that Reuters surveys earlier had put the chance of recession at 25% (August 9) and 20% (two weeks earlier).

On the other hand there are those, one of whom is Charles Lieberman of Advisor’s Capital Management, who say everything is looking up, the economy is recovering.

Source:  Yahoo News (via Econintersect Americas Newspaper page), Advisor Perspectives and Big Haber

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