China: GDP Growth Remains Strong

October 18th, 2011
in econ_news

China-dragon Econintersect:  China has announced that 3Q/2011 GDP came in at 9.1% annualized rate of growth, down from 9.5% in the second quarter, according to Shanghai Daily.  The still robust growth is considered good news because China has been repeatedly tightening monetary policy in 2011 in an attempt to bring down inflation.  As reported by GEI News October 15, those efforts are showing some early signs of success - inflation has abated slightly in recent months.  However, inflation still remains more than 2% above the 4% target so monetary easing is not likely for several more months, at least.

Follow up:

Some of the GDP report from Shanghai Daily:

China’s economy was unlikely to experience a double-dip growth pattern as third-quarter growth remained stable and macroeconomic policies proved effective, said Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Gross domestic Product in China managed to expand 9.1 percent from a year earlier between July and September, extending a relatively stable momentum from 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first three months.

Economic output in the first three quarters rose to 32 trillion yuan (US$5 trillion), up 9.4 percent year-on-year, according to data released by the bureau this morning.

"It's no easy job to achieve such a growth rate under complicated global economic situations and new circumstances in the domestic market," Sheng said. "With stable investment and robust consumption, China's growth is not going to have a second dip as some analysts predicted."

Both consumption and fixed asset investment have been strong.  Investment was up at an annual rate of 24.9% over the first nine months of 2011.  Retail sales in September were 17.7% larger than the same month a year ago.  These numbers continue a ten-year trend for investment to grow faster than consumption in China.  See GEI Analysis yesterday by Michael Pettis.

Sources:  Shanghai Daily, GEI News and GEI Analysis









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