Econintersect: Rail traffic YoY growth is well below trend year-over-year in week 25 of 2011 ending 25 Jun 2011 according to Railfax.
Econintersect uses the transport sector to gauge economic activity – and trucking numbers also are weak being up only 2.7% year-over-year in May (news here).
Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been weakening. The four week trendline which was holding steady between 3% to 4% YoY improvement has now fallen to 2.9%. Econintersect believes this is a warning signal of economic weakness as material movement in the USA is in danger of falling below 2010 levels. This would be an indication a recession was underway.
Last week rail traffic was up 3.7% year-over-year, while this week it is up 1.3% YoY. The four week moving average fell from 3.1% YoY to 2.9%. Year-to-date gains have fallen from 5.2% to 5.0%.
Total US Rail Traffic
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 1.3% | 12.8% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 6.2% | (4.3%) | (1.1%) | 3.3% |
Vs. 2009 | 16.7% | 29.0% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 73.5% | (3.8%) | 53.5% | 24.5% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 5.1% | 8.0% | (2.7%) | 0.6% | 5.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 14.7% | 26.3% | 13.2% | (3.3%) | 4.6% | 71.9% | (1.7%) | 40.9% | 21.3% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | (0.8%) | 0.4% | 4.8% | (2.5%) | 2.3% | 7.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 18.4% | 30.7% | 15.5% | (0.3%) | 6.9% | 78.8% | 2.3% | 46.4% | 24.5% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 5.0% | 8.1% | 5.4% | (3.1%) | 3.7% | 8.1% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% |
Vs. 2009 | 14.8% | 24.8% | 17.6% | 1.0% | 7.1% | 60.9% | (0.7%) | 45.7% | 21.0% |