Rail Traffic Growth Now Only 2.9% - And Continuing to Decline

June 30th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect:  Rail traffic YoY growth is well below trend year-over-year in week 25 of 2011 ending 25 Jun 2011 according to Railfax.

Econintersect uses the transport sector to gauge economic activity - and trucking numbers also are weak being up only 2.7% year-over-year in May (news here).

Follow up:


Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been  weakening.  The four week trendline which was holding steady between 3% to 4% YoY improvement has now fallen to 2.9%.  Econintersect believes this is a warning signal of economic weakness as material movement in the USA is in danger of falling below 2010 levels.  This would be an indication a recession was underway.

Last week rail traffic was up 3.7% year-over-year, while this week it is up 1.3% YoY.   The four week moving average fell from 3.1% YoY to 2.9%.  Year-to-date gains have fallen from 5.2% to 5.0%.


Total US Rail Traffic

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 1.3% 12.8% 0.8% 3.4% 0.3% 6.2% (4.3%) (1.1%) 3.3%
Vs. 2009 16.7% 29.0% 9.7% 2.4% 0.6% 73.5% (3.8%) 53.5% 24.5%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 2.9% 12.4% 3.9% 0.4% 5.1% 8.0% (2.7%) 0.6% 5.2%
Vs. 2009 14.7% 26.3% 13.2% (3.3%) 4.6% 71.9% (1.7%) 40.9% 21.3%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 3.4% 13.6% 3.2% (0.8%) 0.4% 4.8% (2.5%) 2.3% 7.2%
Vs. 2009 18.4% 30.7% 15.5% (0.3%) 6.9% 78.8% 2.3% 46.4% 24.5%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 5.0% 8.1% 5.4% (3.1%) 3.7% 8.1% 0.8% 6.9% 8.0%
Vs. 2009 14.8% 24.8% 17.6% 1.0% 7.1% 60.9% (0.7%) 45.7% 21.0%


Total Rail Traffic

source: Railfax

 















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