Rail Traffic Growth Now Only 2.9% - And Continuing to Decline

June 30th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect:  Rail traffic YoY growth is well below trend year-over-year in week 25 of 2011 ending 25 Jun 2011 according to Railfax.

Econintersect uses the transport sector to gauge economic activity - and trucking numbers also are weak being up only 2.7% year-over-year in May (news here).

Follow up:


Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been  weakening.  The four week trendline which was holding steady between 3% to 4% YoY improvement has now fallen to 2.9%.  Econintersect believes this is a warning signal of economic weakness as material movement in the USA is in danger of falling below 2010 levels.  This would be an indication a recession was underway.

Last week rail traffic was up 3.7% year-over-year, while this week it is up 1.3% YoY.   The four week moving average fell from 3.1% YoY to 2.9%.  Year-to-date gains have fallen from 5.2% to 5.0%.


Total US Rail Traffic

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 1.3% 12.8% 0.8% 3.4% 0.3% 6.2% (4.3%) (1.1%) 3.3%
Vs. 2009 16.7% 29.0% 9.7% 2.4% 0.6% 73.5% (3.8%) 53.5% 24.5%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 2.9% 12.4% 3.9% 0.4% 5.1% 8.0% (2.7%) 0.6% 5.2%
Vs. 2009 14.7% 26.3% 13.2% (3.3%) 4.6% 71.9% (1.7%) 40.9% 21.3%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 3.4% 13.6% 3.2% (0.8%) 0.4% 4.8% (2.5%) 2.3% 7.2%
Vs. 2009 18.4% 30.7% 15.5% (0.3%) 6.9% 78.8% 2.3% 46.4% 24.5%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 5.0% 8.1% 5.4% (3.1%) 3.7% 8.1% 0.8% 6.9% 8.0%
Vs. 2009 14.8% 24.8% 17.6% 1.0% 7.1% 60.9% (0.7%) 45.7% 21.0%


Total Rail Traffic

source: Railfax

 









Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.















 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved