June 2015 Economic Forecast: Significant Decline In Our Economic Index


Written by Steven Hansen

Econintersect"s Economic Index continues to weaken. Most tracked sectors of the economy are relatively soft with most expanding well below rates seen since the end of the Great Recession. When data is this weak, it is not inconceivable that a different methodology could say the data is recessionary. The significant softening of our forecast this month was triggered by marginal declines in many data sets which are dancing closer and closer to zero growth.

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What We Read Today 26 May 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).


Every day most of this column ("What We Read Today") is available only to GEI members.

To become a GEI Member simply subscribe to our FREE daily newsletter.

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 more features, analysis, studies, and news published in the last week

Looking Forward: The Path For Monetary Policy

by John C. Williams - President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

There are two questions I"m asked on an almost daily basis right now, so I"ll preempt the Q and A and get to them right off the bat. One of them is: Given first-quarter weakness, am I revising my outlook for the year? So far, I"ve been relatively upbeat about the economic outlook and the direction we"re heading. The answer leads me to something I say frequently: We need to look at data over the longer term. We can"t get distracted by blips and temporary downs - or ups for that matter.


Infographic Of The Day: Food Photography

The principles of great food photography from an expert

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Video of the Day:

Senator Elizabeth Warren spoke on the Senate floor on February 26, 2015 about the Investor-State Dispute Settlement provision in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement.

video of day picture

FOREX NEWS by DailyForex

Yellen’s Dollar Rally Pleases Global Banks

When Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated her expectations to raise interest rates this year for the first time since 2006 she put smiles on the faces of her peers at central banks around the world.

Dollar Recovers after CPI Release

Last week’s release of inflation data helped to push the US Dollar Index higher and lifted the greenback to an 8-year peak versus the Japanese Yen.

Greece Unable To Pay IMF

In June, Greece must repay €1.5 billion to the IMF and roll over €5.2 billion in short-term bonds.

Oil Prices Steady—For Now

Crude oil seems to be making a comeback. With prices rebounding significantly over the last few weeks, traders are jumping back in with expectations of continued gains.

Fed’s Fischer Says Rate Hike Debate Driven by Data, Not Date

With all the talk by Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen and other Fed officials that interest rates will be raised by the end of the year, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer seems to be taking a different approach, believing that there is a risk to raising interest rates prematurely.
 more investing, markets, precious metals & forex

27May2015 Pre-Market Commentary: Futures Up Fractionally Along With The U.S. Dollar, Market Weakness Prevails

 more opinion

What Exactly is the Role of an Inflation-Targeting Central Bank?

Hypocracy about "Rules" in the Eurozone

by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101

I have always thought that an inflation-targeting central bank is independent because it follows a clear goal: get inflation to fall in line with the target in the medium term. What I cannot understand is what ECB and Bundesbank are doing.


 USA economy at a glance (boxed items are updates in last 7 days)

May 2015 Chemical Activity Barometer Rises. Suggests Gains In Business Will Continue Into 2016.

from the American Chemistry Council

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), jumped 0.7 percent in May, as measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Reaching an index of 99.3, last seen in November 2007, the CAB remains up 3.3 percent over a year ago, and suggests gains in business activity now will continue into 2016.

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