The Low Volatility Puzzle: Are Investors Complacent?


from Liberty Street Economics

-- this post authored by David Lucca, Daniel Roberts, and Peter Van Tassel

In recent months, some analysts and policymakers have raised concerns about the unusually low level of stock market volatility. For example, in the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes 'a few participants expressed concern that subdued market volatility, coupled with a low equity premium, could lead to a buildup of risks to financial stability.'

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Stock Market Valuation And The Macroeconomy

from the San Francisco Fed

-- this post authored by Kevin J. Lansing

History suggests that extreme run-ups in the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio are a signal that the stock market may be overvalued. A simple regression model using a small set of macroeconomic explanatory variables can account for most of the run-up in the CAPE ratio since 2009, offering some justification for its current elevated level. The model predicts a modest decline in the ratio over the next decade. All else being equal, such a decline would imply lower stock returns relative to those in recent years when the ratio was rising.

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Infographic Of The Day: What People Think Of Globalization, By Country

More than in the past, the population is divided on whether globalization is a force for good or not.

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Video of the Day:

If you can identify very many of the people in the video you are REALLY OLD! The video is special to us because so many of the people in the video are gone now and the younger gen-kids probably won’t even appreciate all that talent in one place. I hope you enjoy this video as much as we did. Many of the characters in the video are no longer with us but the message is loud and clear: God Bless America. The NFL could use a good dose!

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Current Weather Outlook

Written by

Some Southwest States may set high temperature records on Thanksgiving Day and the Phoenix Airport may record the first Meteorological Fall Season without measurable precipitation since 1938. Alaska is getting back-door cold fronts which are creating Gulf of Alaska Lows which then provide moisture to the Northwest. La Nina and Global Warming result in interesting weather. Continue reading to learn more. 

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The Market May Struggle Higher

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'Hot Potato' Shows Why Workers Won't Benefit From Trump's Corporate Tax Cut

from The Conversation

-- this post authored by Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

Many children have played hot potato, a game in which they pass a spud to other children quickly so they don't get stuck with it when the music stops.

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Written by Jim Welsh

Macro Tides Technical Review 20 November 2017

Happy Thanksgiving!

In the 24/7 world in which we live it is easy to take the everyday blessings for granted and easier for our attention to dwell on what isn't going the way we expected or hoped. Thanksgiving forces us to stop for a moment and remember all the good stuff that has come our way and express our gratitude. Family and friends always come first but I am also blessed to be doing what captivates and stimulates my intellect very day and provides lessons in humility to keep me grounded. I hope your Thanksgiving is spent with family and friends.


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 USA economy at a glance (boxed items are updates in last 7 days)

Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 20 November 2017 Declined Over 2 Cents

Average gasoline prices declined 2.3 cents this past week following the previous week's 3.3 cent rise.

Average prices by region and a breakdown by grade follow after "Read more....".

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