Can ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index be Trusted?

By Georg Vrba, P.E., Advisor Perspectives, dshort.com [Editor’s Note: In forecasting the economy, no proven dynamic forecasting model exists.  Econintersect has a benign opinion of leading indices – and views them like ground hogs – a concoction of logical and illogical data points which somehow provide forecasts better than opinion.] I provide examples of indicators from …

Economy: Sick but not Dying

Last week I stated that “other than a horribly weak economy, there are no major signs indicating an outright contraction.”    This needs to be expanded as an economy is not a homogeneous mechanism that ebbs and flows in unison.  There are economic elements which can be pointed at that are contracting or, if not contracting, …

Notice: Use BLS Data at Your Own Peril + Weekly Economic Summary

The markets wait for the unpredictable BLS to publish its data. Their methodology produces a lot of monthly volatility. Their adjustment factors create too many jobs. The August 2010 BLS jobs report did not disappoint this opinion.