Coincident Data Providing Confirmation of Improving Economy

Written by Steven Hansen On Friday on CNBC, ECRI renewed their recession call – now saying a recession should hit by mid-year 2012.   Supporting evidence for this call was based on coincident data’s growth rate-of-change was falling to historical recession levels. There is no current data in my world that is suggesting a USA recession.  …

USA Employment: Looking Through the Chaos

Even a week after the January 2012 jobs report was released, pundits are still arguing over what it means.  I too have been mulling over the data.  The problem is that: There is significant controversy about the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) seasonally adjusts  the data.  This analyst believes the adjustment methodology is …

Is Sea Cargo Baltic Dry Index Decline Recessionary?

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is in recession territory.  It has been a good friend to pundits who make economic predictions.  Sorry to say, our friend is sick – but there is every reason to believe the illness was caused by forces far beyond a fall in demand. Global trade contraction is one of the …

Real State of the Union: A Prisoner of Housing?

Can the USA economy really grab hold as long as the housing market remains weak?   This past week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at his press conference following the FOMC meeting acknowledged housing was the primary reason the current economic situation is muted. My position is that: the personal wealth for the majority of Americans runs …

Comparative Risk: Costa Concordia, Fukushima, Europe

We make decisions daily in our investing life to make money knowing that there is a potential to lose money.  Seldom do we anticipate the possibility of losing the entire investment, and when we do consider this possibility, generally we think of it as gambling (wagering what we can afford to lose).