Marking Down Global Growth

Written by Stephen Swanson In October the IMF marked down its estimates for global growth. In its latest WEO it foresees global growth of 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013, down from 3.5 percent this year and 3.9 percent next year when it made its last report in July. At the time, …

The Week That Was Stormy

Written by Stephen Swanson A shortened trading week was not affected by economic releases and during the past week we saw a slew of releases generally confirming our picture of stable but anemic growth but with hints of strength in the US and mixed signals from Europe and China and with risks posed by the …

The Week That Was: 27 October 2012

Making Slow Progress Written by Stephen Swanson The economic data released during the past week tended to be solid and confirming with no sharp breaks from past trends and nothing to change the course of our thinking. If anything, we better understand the inner workings of the new normal and our limited prospects for growth.

The Week That Was 20 October 2012

Written by Stephen Swanson Much economic data was published this past week and the scope of the releases was sufficiently broad as to allow inferences to be drawn as to how most sectors of the economy are performing even though the picture remains mottled and messy. Economic cross currents arising from anemic domestic growth, slowing …

Global Growth is Slowing and China is the Wild Card

Written by Stephen Swanson Over the past two weeks a spate of manufacturing PMI and confidence surveys and have been released for many developed and emerging market economies, offering an insight into the depth and breadth of what is often referred to as a synchronized, global economic slowdown. It’s beyond the scope of this note …