China: Will Reforms Speed Growth?

Although still vague on the specifics, China’s Third Plenum November partially clarified the nature of the reforms that Beijing is proposing for China over the coming year. Of course very little was said in any of the related releases about the difficulties,

Monetary Policy Under Financial Repression

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets Following Paul Krugman’s lead I guess I can refer to this post as being “wonkish”.  Much of it is based on my recent book  Avoiding the Fall (Carnegie Endowment, September 2013).

The Politics of Adjustment

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets The past two years have seen a surprising amount of turmoil at the highest levels of the Chinese political establishment. We have seen political alliances re-shuffled, powerful business and political leaders arrested, factional disputes magnified, and an explosion of rumors of more to come. After twenty years of what …

China: Balancing Political Ideology and Economic Pragmatism

Written by Jillian Friesen, GEI Associate, and John Lounsbury Last week the new Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China was introduced to the world. All of those who were elected are new members to the committee, including the new party leader Xi Jinping (pictured, Source). Also, they represent a rainbow of conservative …

Imbalances, Disequilibria and Correlation Traps

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets Chiwoong Lee at Goldman Sachs has a new report out (“China vs. 1970s Japan”, September 25, 2012) in which he predicts that China’s long-term growth rate will drop to 7.5-8.5%.  I disagree very strongly with his forecast, of course, and expect China’s growth rate over the next decade to …