Not Believing the Economy Will Collapse As QE Is Eased

Written by Steven Hansen Will the higher interest rates already being felt (supposedly caused by the Fed’s more definitive yet indefinite quantitative easing tapering announcement) kill the economy? This time Nobel Laureate Professor Paul Krugman stated:

How Will Ending Quantitative Easing Effect the Markets?

Written by Steven Hansen The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes were released earlier this week indicating many (few, majority, most, all?) members were leaning towards terminating some aspects of the current quantitative easing (QE) purchases sooner rather than later. ….A few participants noted that they already viewed the costs as likely outweighing the benefits and …

What Would It Take to Ignite Inflation?

Written by Gene Balas We see a few signs of budding inflation.  But will it bloom? Survey data point to businesses’ higher costs in recent months.  The key question is whether those cost increases are temporary or persistent, and whether they will be passed on to their customers in higher prices.  That, in turn, depends …

Contrarian Analysis for 2012. Part 1.

Could 2012 Surprise to the Upside? by Guest Author John Slater, Capital Matters In January we are trained to predict the likely course of the coming year and more often than not we get it wrong. This year virtually everyone has had the same prediction: “We’ll muddle along at around 2.5% growth unless something really …

Nominal GDP Targeting

by Dirk Ehnst

Paul Krugman has embraced nominal GDP targeting. And we are back at the old QE discussion. It is Richard Koo in the red corner, vs Paul Krugman in the blue corner. One is left with the impression that the whole case for a nominal GDP target is based on dubious assumptions and mixed evidence at best. The case for fiscal policy is much more clear-cut. Targeting nominal GDP is OK with me, as Paul Krugman says, why exclude the fiscal side? As it stands, it is a lender’s strike. Investors want to see aggregate demand rise, and not expect that it rises. Only then you get back to talking about credibility and confidence and all those things. Since we are in a situation which resembles the Great Depression, I am not aware that any country escaped from that event by changing expectations. Two things did it: exiting the gold standard (which gave you control over the interest rate and money supply), and ramping up fiscal policy. I wish there were another way.