Full Time Job Growth is Weak

Top Line Employment Looks Good, But Full Time Job Growth Is Falling Apart Since QE3 by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS last week reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 236,000 in February nonfarm payrolls. This massively beat consensus expectations of a gain of 165,000, in surveys of economists. However, it should have …

Full-Time Jobs Jump But….

Full Time Jobs Jump While Hours and Weekly Earnings Soften by Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner The BLS today reported a gain of 171,00 in nonfarm payrolls. The actual, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) number was a gain of 911,000. In the actual (NSA) data, October  is always an up month. Last year the October …

Employment: Seasonal Adjustment Woes

The Real Deal on Jobs – The BLS Is Just Catching Up With Massive Undercounting in Seasonally Adjusted Estimates by Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner October 5, 2012 – The BLS today reported a gain of 114,00 in nonfarm payrolls. That compares with a gain of 574,000 in the actual, not seasonally adjusted number. In …

August Payrolls Data Actually Strong

by Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) must be staffed with Republicans. There’s something wrong with the headline number this month. It is consistent with the pattern of the past 5 months where the seasonally adjusted (SA) headline numbers appear to understate the trend of the actual, not seasonally adjusted …

The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index

The Philly Fed ADS Index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. It is based on six underlying data series:

Weekly initial jobless claims
Monthly payroll employment
Industrial production
Personal income less transfer payments
Manufacturing and trade sales
Quarterly real GDP