Recession Markers Have Evaporated Except for ECRI’s Recession

Written by Steven Hansen This past  week Industrial Production (analysis here) finally exceeded the July peaks, and now all of the economic broad measures are at 2012 highs.  On 07 December 2012, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based  independent forecasting group stated: Following our September 2011 recession call, we clarified its likely timing …

Obamacare: Will Insurance Pooling Lower Consumer Costs?

by Leemore Dafny, NBER Private health insurance plays a pivotal role in the U.S. healthcare system. Private insurers account for one out of every three dollars spent on healthcare, and even this figure understates the importance of the sector: many public insurance programs now rely on private insurers to manage a substantial share of spending …

Evaluating Recession Forecasts: Read Critically

by Jeff Miller For investors who believe that stocks eventually reflect the fundamental strength of the companies, understanding the business cycle is crucial. Since popular sentiment and stock prices are often excessively negative about economic prospects, there is great opportunity for those who can get this right. Regular readers know that I have been conducting …