Austerity and Growth Perspectives: Europe, the IMF, China, and the US (Part: 2)

by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Note: A version of this article was published by Deutsche Welle, 23 May 2013. Introduction Part. 1 of this report highlighted the positions of the IMF and Europe on the austerity/growth trade-off as reflected in discussion on what to do about the problems of Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. …

The IMF on Overinvestment

by Michael Pettis The IMF’s II Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now close to 50 percent of GDP, …

Marking Down Global Growth

Written by Stephen Swanson In October the IMF marked down its estimates for global growth. In its latest WEO it foresees global growth of 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013, down from 3.5 percent this year and 3.9 percent next year when it made its last report in July. At the time, …

Euro Crisis: Are Germany and IMF Lighting a Fuse?

by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction In earlier articles, I have talked of the “weak sisters” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) together, arguing they will never be able to compete with Germany and other more “efficient” Eurozone countries. Of course, each weak sister is different. In this piece, I consider each separately and whether …