End of the Cycle

Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness – 1913 to 2013 Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com On the eve of the centennial anniversary of the “War to End all Wars”, it is depressing to observe the new seeds of global conflict developing in what Professor Peter Turchin[i] has referred to as “Rich, Overeducated Elites”[ii]; attempting to …

Global Manufacturing Growth Shudders Towards A Halt

by Edward Hugh, Euro Watch This months manufacturing PMI data only confirm what several months of prior surveys (and now the latest US jobs report) have been telling us, namely that growth in the developed economies is getting scarcer and scarcer, and harder and harder to come by. Following a brief brief period of stabilization, …

China and the Global Crisis

by Michael Pettis This posting is from the January 30 issue of my newsletter, and so ignores recent events in Chongqing, but of course those events make my discussion of the political debate entry all the more relevant, I think. Before getting to the policy debate, I want to mention that in late January Caixin, …