Correlation and Causation Deniers, Chickens and Eggs

This post is for those fond of repeating the axiom “correlation does not imply causation,” because while correlation may not prove causation, it certainly can imply it. In fact, there are instances where the denial of any linkage between correlation and causation proves only that the deniers have their heads in the sand.

Coming 2014 Explosion: EU Money Supply or EU Itself?

The following is a partial summary of conclusions from our weekly analysts’ meeting in which we share thoughts and conclusions about the weekly outlook for global equities, currencies, and commodity markets.

ECB Bank Stress Tests: Catalyst Of The Final EU Crisis?

by Cliff Wachtel, FX Empire Everything you need to know about biggest threat to markets for the foreseeable future-why EU bank supervision can’t be avoided, but risks so much The following is a partial summary of conclusions from our weekly analysts’ meeting for the week ending 15 November 2013 in which we share thoughts and …

The Great Debate©: Are There Really Any Choices for the Euro?

by Elliott Morss Editor’s introduction:  The two sides of this debate are joined by Anders Åslund and Elliott Morss.   Åslund has published a paper at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in which he thoroughly documents why he thinks there are two possible choices for the eurozone.  The editor will briefly summarize Åslund’s paper and …

Mario Draghi Nomination Based on Deception

by ECB Watch The Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) Committee was in charge of evaluating Mario Draghi’s credentials on behalf of the European Parliament. The view of the Committee, and accompanying evidence, was described in a 36 pages report released on 16 June 2011 just before the vote on the nomination by MEPs. It concluded …