Coming 2014 Explosion: EU Money Supply or EU Itself?

The following is a partial summary of conclusions from our weekly analysts’ meeting in which we share thoughts and conclusions about the weekly outlook for global equities, currencies, and commodity markets.

Stratfor: UK Moving Away from the European Union?

By George Friedman, Stratfor Founder and Chief Executive Officer British Prime Minister David Cameron will deliver a speech in London on Jan. 23, during which he will discuss the future of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union. Excerpts leaked to the media suggest that harsh EU criticism will figure prominently in the speech, …

European Banking Union Proposal

The sovereign debt crisis has revealed severe flaws in the EU internal market. Common monetary policy has not been accompanied by the transfer of authority to supervise banks and risks of banks and states have become dangerously intertwined. This column summarises the proposal of the German Council of Economic Experts for a full banking union which aim at correcting these deficits.

Analysis: Poland’s Balancing Act

By George Friedman, Stratfor Polish national strategy pivots around a single, existential issue: how to preserve its national identity and independence. Located on the oft-invaded North European Plain, Poland’s existence is heavily susceptible to the moves of major Eurasian powers. Therefore, Polish history has been erratic, with Poland moving from independence — even regional dominance …

Dr. Draghi: Name Your Poison

by Marshall Auerback, New Economic Perspectives There appears to be an emerging consensus that the euro will survive, especially now that Mario Draghi has apparently grasped the nettle and persuaded his colleagues that the ECB (European Central Bank) is prepared to initiate unlimited purchases of national government bonds in order to underwrite their solvency.   …