Public Debt and Economic Growth, One More Time

by Ugo Panizza and Andrea F Presbitero This post was originally published by Voxeu.org The very public Rogoff-Reinhart kerfuffle has focused on what is not true. This column reviews the evidence on what is true. It suggests that the debt-growth link is more complex than commonly thought. While there is evidence that public debt is …

Autopsy: March 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Shows Economy In Recession

Written by Steven Hansen The authors of  the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) have thrown in the towel in providing written interpretion their own index.  What they wanted the index to do was mimic GDP and industrial production – this turned into a colossal failure as the index decoupled. The likely reason is that …

February 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Improves: It’s Broken but Useful

Written by Steven Hansen The February 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) rose 0.7% (down 0.1% year-over-year). Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is up 4.2% month-over-month and up 4.1% year-over-year. The PCI has been in a long term “less …