Correlation and Causation Deniers, Chickens and Eggs

This post is for those fond of repeating the axiom “correlation does not imply causation,” because while correlation may not prove causation, it certainly can imply it. In fact, there are instances where the denial of any linkage between correlation and causation proves only that the deniers have their heads in the sand.

Coming 2014 Explosion: EU Money Supply or EU Itself?

The following is a partial summary of conclusions from our weekly analysts’ meeting in which we share thoughts and conclusions about the weekly outlook for global equities, currencies, and commodity markets.

ECB Bank Stress Tests: Catalyst Of The Final EU Crisis?

by Cliff Wachtel, FX Empire Everything you need to know about biggest threat to markets for the foreseeable future-why EU bank supervision can’t be avoided, but risks so much The following is a partial summary of conclusions from our weekly analysts’ meeting for the week ending 15 November 2013 in which we share thoughts and …

Fiscal Implications of the ECB’s Bond-buying Program

by Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji published this article 14 June 2013 The monetary-fiscal policy connection is under scrutiny by the German Constitutional Court in the context of the ECB’s OMT bond-buying programme. This column argues that most analyses are deeply flawed by the misapplication of private-company default principles to the central bank. …

Why Doesn’t IMF Track Inflation for the Eurozone?

IMF Says Inflation Likely to Remain Stable – What About the Eurozone? by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 The latest IMF Survey has this to say: Inflation barely budged during Great Recession despite rising unemployment Independent central banks reduce risk that policies to stimulate economy will ignite prices Inflation expectations anchored, but asset prices still vulnerable to …