World Recession Update – Apr 2013

by Dwaine van Vuuren Reposted from Recession Alert with written permission. The following charts and text are an extraction from our monthly Global Recession Report, one of 3 weekly and 5 monthly  reports we issue 17 times each month for an all-inclusive $395 per annum. We have all the numbers in for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth …

A 100% Recession Risk That Wasn’t

by Dwaine van Vuuren, from Advisor Perspectives dshort.com Professor Piger updated his recession probability model that caused so much attention early November (See “Debunking 100% probability of recession“). As we forecast last month, the probability index undertook a “revision” of epic proportions as displayed below (01-Dec-12 vintage):

Recession is not Imminent

by Guest Author Dwaine van Vuuren Note: This article is cross-posted with Advisor Perspectives d/short.com Perma-bears are bombarding us with alarm bells, sounding the doom of the US economy. We find ourselves in yet another “summer slowdown scare,” for the third year running. In 2010 and 2011, the purported slowdowns turned out to be soft …

The New Conference Board LEI: First Look

by Guest Author Dwaine van Vuuren, PowerStocks Investment Research, cross posted from Advisor Perspectives, dshort.com The much anticipated Conference Board LEI revision is out. Many people were fearing that the removal of M2 from the composite would plunge it into recession territory, but that is not the case. Our own investigations into this matter in …