Gasoline Use Down, Recession Possibility Up

Written by Steven Hansen There are enough analysts believing the USA is in, or about to be in, a recession – that one is kept in a higher alert status for signs.  These informed opinions need to be taken seriously as the economy remains so weakly expanding that only small movements in growth could produce …

Autopsy: March 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Shows Economy In Recession

Written by Steven Hansen The authors of  the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) have thrown in the towel in providing written interpretion their own index.  What they wanted the index to do was mimic GDP and industrial production – this turned into a colossal failure as the index decoupled. The likely reason is that …

February 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Improves: It’s Broken but Useful

Written by Steven Hansen The February 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) rose 0.7% (down 0.1% year-over-year). Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is up 4.2% month-over-month and up 4.1% year-over-year. The PCI has been in a long term “less …

January 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index: Index Down But Is It Broken?

The January 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) fell 1.7% year-over-year, and 2.2% below year-ago levels. Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is up 2.6% month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year. The data has been in a long term “less good” …