Global Economic News and Analysis
Written by Steven Hansen There are enough analysts believing the USA is in, or about to be in, a recession – that one is kept in a higher alert status for signs. These informed opinions need to be taken seriously as the economy remains so weakly expanding that only small movements in growth could produce …
Continue reading “Gasoline Use Down, Recession Possibility Up”
Written by Steven Hansen The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) state their index has improved 0.1%, but this hapless index has actually fallen 2.7% unadjusted year-over-year (see caveats below).
Written by Steven Hansen The authors of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) have thrown in the towel in providing written interpretion their own index. What they wanted the index to do was mimic GDP and industrial production – this turned into a colossal failure as the index decoupled. The likely reason is that …
Continue reading “Autopsy: March 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Shows Economy In Recession”
Written by Steven Hansen The February 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) rose 0.7% (down 0.1% year-over-year). Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is up 4.2% month-over-month and up 4.1% year-over-year. The PCI has been in a long term “less …
Continue reading “February 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Improves: It’s Broken but Useful”
The January 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) fell 1.7% year-over-year, and 2.2% below year-ago levels. Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is up 2.6% month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year. The data has been in a long term “less good” …
Continue reading “January 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index: Index Down But Is It Broken?”