The Consumer is Bouncing Along the Bottom

For the first time since late April the decline in our Daily Growth Index has stalled and even rebounded very slightly to a -6.71% year-over-year contraction (after bottoming at a -6.76% on May 16, 2011). This constitutes a break in the relentless decline of online consumer durables purchases. However, the best to say at this point is that consumers are bouncing along in a state of ongoing gloom.

Consumers Come to Terms with Frugality

The persistence of the decline in discretionary spending online for consumer durable goods suggests that consumers have come to terms with the need for a longer term frugality — perhaps not wishing to repeat the premature “green shoots” optimism of early 2009.

Retail Sales and Credit Expansion Reports not Real

Shopping center sales and consumer credit numbers are reported to be rising. Careful examination indicates they are both falling in most categories. Only direct student loans are increasing. CMI also finds that the Daily Growth Index which tracks online durable goods sales has fallen back to a six-month low.