The Idea That US Consumer Is Resilient Is A Myth

America is in verge of experiencing another disastrous bubble in some segment of its economy, argues Lee Adler. Studying the data, Mr. Adler concludes that the Americans are spending less. According to him, the upcoming bubble is unlikely to do any good to the economy just as the last one. As a result, the economic downturn will affect the standard of living in the country.

Retail Sales Reports Give Me Gas

by Lee Adler

It just doesn’t get any more bullish than today’s retail sales report. Or so you would think if you only read the mainstream media reports. “More spending at online stores such as Amazon and electronics and applicance stores boosted retail sales by 0.5% in October, following a strong 1.1% surge in September,” shouted Marketwatch. “Retail sales rose more than projected in October as American shoppers gave the economy a boost at the start of the fourth quarter, “enthused Bloomberg. The Wall Street Journal was a little less effusive: “U.S. retail sales rose in October as Americans spent their dollars at electronics stores and on the Internet.”

Correlation and Causation Deniers, Chickens and Eggs

This post is for those fond of repeating the axiom “correlation does not imply causation,” because while correlation may not prove causation, it certainly can imply it. In fact, there are instances where the denial of any linkage between correlation and causation proves only that the deniers have their heads in the sand.

Retail Sales Not As Bad As They Said, On the Other Hand, They Were Worse

On the surface, the January retail sales report released on February 13 doesn’t look so bad, in spite of the hysterical headlines about the big “miss” because of January’s bad weather. Street economists had a consensus guess that the seasonally adjusted headline number would be unchanged from December.