Durable goods new orders headlines in July 2011 show a month-over-month expansion of 4% (seasonally adjusted data). Econintersect’s analysis of the unadjusted data says shows an expansion of 1.9% – and backward revision of last months data now shows an expansion of 0.8% last month.
US Census says durable goods in June 2011 contracted 2.1%. Econintersect’s analysis of the data says this data is indicating the economy has stalled, and the month-over-month contraction may be as high as 4%.
While many are basking in the headlines that Durable Goods new orders increased 1.9% in May 2011, Econintersect points out that unfilled orders decreased. This decrease could be seasonal as it did happen last year (we do not have enough new normal data for seasonal analysis), but it more likely is caused by too much capacity (too many employees).
Econintersect warned in its April 2011 economic forecast that the economy was at a cycle peak. April 2011 advance durable goods new orders were weak, but what should catch your eye is the break in the trend line of order backlog (unfilled orders). Caution: One month is not a trend and we have to see May …
Durable Goods (manufactured goods whose usefulness continues for years) new orders sharply improved in March 2011 breaking the “less good” downtrend. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased $5.0 billion or 2.5 percent in March. The increase from March 2010 was slightly greater than 12%.