Durable Goods New Orders Improves in July 2011 – No Recession?

Durable goods new orders headlines in July 2011 show a month-over-month expansion of 4% (seasonally adjusted data). Econintersect’s analysis of the unadjusted data says shows an expansion of 1.9% – and backward revision of last months data now shows an expansion of 0.8% last month.

Durable Goods Says the Economy Was Better in May 2011

While many are basking in the headlines that Durable Goods new orders increased 1.9% in May 2011, Econintersect points out that unfilled orders decreased. This decrease could be seasonal as it did happen last year (we do not have enough new normal data for seasonal analysis), but it more likely is caused by too much capacity (too many employees).

April 2011 Durable Goods Suggest Economic Cycle Change

Econintersect warned in its April 2011 economic forecast that the economy was at a cycle peak.  April 2011 advance durable goods new orders were weak, but what should catch your eye is the break in the trend line of order backlog (unfilled orders).  Caution:  One month is not a trend and we have to see May …

Sharp Improvement in Durable Goods Manufacturing in March 2011

Durable Goods (manufactured goods whose usefulness continues for years) new orders sharply improved in March 2011 breaking the “less good” downtrend. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased $5.0 billion or 2.5 percent in March. The increase from March 2010 was slightly greater than 12%.