February 2013 Leading Economic Index Continues to Forecast Economic Expansion

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.5% in February to 94.8 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value continues to slowly trend up. This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market expected a 0.5% improvement in the LEI (versus the …

The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years

by Lakshman Achuthan, Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer, ECRI Economic cycles are an inherent part of how every market-oriented economy in the world operates, and what happens around cycle turning points has always been ECRI’s primary focus. From this perspective, with the onset of the Great Recession – even before the Lehman Brothers collapse – …

January 2013 Leading Economic Index Points to a Slow Economic Expansion

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.2% in January to 94.1 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up. This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market expected a 0.3% improvement in the LEI (versus the …

December 2012 Leading Economic Index Suggests Economic Growth Might Improve

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.5% in December to 93.9 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been in a tight range for most of 2012 until this growth spurt. This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market …

Business Cycle Forecasting: The First-Rate Results of Robert F. Dieli

by Jeff Miller This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written.  It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions.  To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the background links and watching the videos. I am …